406 E Willingham St · Cleburne, TX 76031

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1920 5,009 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors and savvy buyers! Discover the ultimate flip or renovation project in a highly desirable walk-to-town location. Spanning 1,273 square feet on a generous 5,000-square-foot lot, this 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is full of potential. Positioned just blocks from the heart of historic downtown Cleburne, you get the perfect blend of small-town charm and big-city convenience—with Fort Worth less than 40 minutes away. Don't miss out on this prime investment opportunity!

Key facts

• 000-square-foot lot
• 5
• 5,009 sq ft lot

Tags

• WALK-TO-TOWN LOCATION
• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN CLEBURNE
• 5
• 000-SQUARE-FOOT LOT
• PRIME INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 126280021050; County: Johnson; Country: United States
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 covered space); Driveway parking; On-street parking; No garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1920; One story
• Construction: Year built: 1920
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.115 acre); Subdivision: Original Cleburne; Directions provided to property

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on main level (10 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s); Wall/window cooling unit(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: One-level layout; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry or utility appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $538 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Santa Fe El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 409 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 56% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.31%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,956
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Robbins St	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,372 (+8%)	5mo	$244,900	$178	65
494 Park St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+1%)	1mo	$199,000	$155	65
512 E Willingham St	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,153 (-9%)	9mo	$209,000	$181	60
427 Sabine Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-2%)	8mo	$214,900	$172	58
103 Myers Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,229 (-4%)	2mo	$175,000	$142	58
204 S Walnut St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+5%)	2mo	$230,000	$172	56
741 N Robinson St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+6%)	4mo	$200,000	$147	56
438 Sabine Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-3%)	8mo	$174,000	$141	53
1300 N Brazos Ave	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,398 (+10%)	3mo	$203,900	$146	50
511 N Wood St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,189 (-7%)	1mo	$185,000	$156	49
226 W Willingham St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+14%)	3mo	$249,900	$172	46
205 S Washington St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	7mo	$295,000	$209	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $18,346
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $60,511
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76031

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,789/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,004

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $595	-5% $566	+0% $538	+5% $510	+10% $482
Rent	-10% $405	-5% $472	+0% $538	+5% $605	+10% $672
Rate	-1.0pp $588	-0.5pp $564	base $538	+0.5pp $513	+1.0pp $487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 E Wilson St Unit B Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,900	$1.36	25d	1	0.27mi
612 N Robinson St Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.5	1311	$2,200	$1.68	44d	1	0.31mi
112 W Wilson St Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	1002	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.37mi
104 May Ave Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,550	$1.33	44d	1	0.42mi
103 May Ave Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,795	$1.42	7d	1	0.44mi
1308 N Brazos Ave Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,595	$1.55	25d	1	0.59mi
706 S Brazos Ave Unit B Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	25d	1	0.63mi
901 N Border St Unit A Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	44d	1	0.63mi
204 W Westhill Dr Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,950	$1.88	44d	1	0.63mi
318 College St Unit B Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	1256	$1,150	$0.92	25d	1	0.65mi
438 Sabine Ave Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,650	$1.34	13d	1	0.69mi
405 College St Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,650	$1.18	7d	1	0.71mi
413 Shaw St Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1713	$2,100	$1.23	44d	1	0.75mi
960 Traction Trl Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,200	$1.20	44d	1	0.82mi
1005 N Buffalo Ave Cleburne, TX	3.0	1.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	44d	1	0.84mi
1005 N Buffalo Ave Cleburne, TX	3.0	1.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	25d	1	0.84mi
1005 N Buffalo Ave Cleburne, TX	3.0	1.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	3d	1	0.84mi
114 Scurlock Ave Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1457	$1,770	$1.21	44d	1	0.91mi
405 Madison St Unit Na Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1645	$1,975	$1.20	44d	1	0.95mi
907 Hodge St Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	3d	1	0.97mi
1218 E James St Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,695	$1.27	44d	1	0.97mi
1005 Granbury St Unit A Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,050	$1.51	25d	1	0.99mi
807 W Smith St Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,845	$1.51	13d	1	1.08mi
303 Eastland St Cleburne, TX	3.0	3.0	1254	$1,950	$1.56	44d	1	1.08mi
805 N Douglas Ave Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,999	$1.37	44d	1	1.08mi
823 College St Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	944	$1,550	$1.64	18d	1	1.18mi
823 College St Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	944	$1,550	$1.64	7d	1	1.18mi
301 Pearl St Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	25d	1	1.19mi
203 Willana Ct Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	21d	1	1.22mi
521 Woodard Ave Unit One Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,000	$0.74	44d	1	1.25mi
514 Euclid St Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,595	$1.38	44d	1	1.27mi
1601 Annabelle St Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,280	$1.29	0d	1	1.28mi
1108 Poindexter Ave Cleburne, TX	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	44d	1	1.30mi
1405 Granbury St Cleburne, TX	3.0	1.0	1278	$1,545	$1.21	25d	1	1.30mi
226 Seclusion Dr Cleburne, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1641	$2,205	$1.34	0d	1	1.31mi
1106 Williams Ave Unit D Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	25d	1	1.31mi
1108 Williams Ave Unit H Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	25d	1	1.32mi
1315 Joslin St Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,595	$1.23	8d	1	1.33mi
122 Ramsey St #124 Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,050	$1.19	23d	1	1.33mi
122 Ramsey Ave Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,050	$1.19	0d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 487-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $109,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,789 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,789 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,789
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $5,277
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,267
• After-tax cash flow: $5,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleburne, TX
• City population: 29,538
• Population (ZIP): 18,697

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.43%
• Current HPI: 277.598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $109,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,789 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.