417 Riverview Rd · Forked River, NJ 08731

$375,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1971 7,405 sqft lot Est $401k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vacant.Sold as is. Ideal 203K financing. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 8/6/11.Investors and second home purchasers may submit offers at anytime,however, the offers will not be considered for negotiation until after the 15 day time period with owner occupied buyers.Seller will provide 2yr HOW warranty for owner occupied buyers and up to 3.5% owner occupied closing costs, offer recd by 7/31/11 and closed by 9/30/11.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood; Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Multiple-unit cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace (one)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $375k).
• Recommended offer: $369k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Forked River Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #731 of 1,303 statewide, top 59%, 456 students, 32% FRL); Mill Pond Elementary School (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #332 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 680 students, 27% FRL); Lacey Township High School (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #217 of 399 statewide, top 57%, 1,222 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $375k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $369,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.90%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $400,545
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
417 Riverview Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,161 (0%)	0mo	$404,000	$348	100
455 Newport Rd	0.12mi	2/1.0	1,161 (0%)	5mo	$400,000	$345	90
613 Twin River Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,143 (-2%)	5mo	$412,000	$360	76
615 Beach Blvd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,180 (+2%)	2mo	$310,000	$263	66
455 Commodore Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,268 (+9%)	9mo	$389,900	$307	63
465 Commodore Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,308 (+13%)	0mo	$467,500	$357	62
30 Parkers Point Blvd	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,194 (+3%)	20mo	$430,000	$360	62
473 Admiral Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,162 (+0%)	18mo	$380,000	$327	60
461 Ensign Rd	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,040 (-10%)	22mo	$330,000	$317	56
205 Nantucket Rd	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,093 (-6%)	9mo	$400,000	$366	54
22 E Lacey Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,266 (+9%)	4mo	$271,169	$214	50
107 Sea Bright Rd	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,268 (+9%)	11mo	$380,000	$300	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-54,732
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-39,042
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08731

• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$443 /mo · $5,320/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$819
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,788

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $302	-5% $196	+0% $90	+5% $-16	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-64	+0% $90	+5% $244	+10% $398
Rate	-1.0pp $279	-0.5pp $185	base $90	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1404 Hilo Bay Dr Unit 1546204P Forked River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1345	$3,902	$2.90	9d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   status Active
3. 2026-02-21
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-07
   listed $375,000 Active
5. 2026-02-03
   historical $375,000
6. 2011-10-19
   soldstatus $125,501 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Vacant.Sold as is. Ideal 203K financing. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 8/6/11.Investors and second home purchasers may submit offers at anytime,however, the offers will not be considered for negotiation until after the 15 day time period with owner occupied buyers.Seller will provide 2yr HOW warranty for owner occupied buyers and up to 3.5% owner occupied closing costs, offer recd by 7/31/11 and closed by 9/30/11.

7. 2011-07-22
   listed $125,000 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Vacant.Sold as is. Ideal 203K financing. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 8/6/11.Investors and second home purchasers may submit offers at anytime,however, the offers will not be considered for negotiation until after the 15 day time period with owner occupied buyers.Seller will provide 2yr HOW warranty for owner occupied buyers and up to 3.5% owner occupied closing costs, offer recd by 7/31/11 and closed by 9/30/11.

8. 2007-08-23
   soldstatus $228,500
9. 2007-08-17
   soldstatus $228,500 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Lovely 2 bedroom ranch waiting for new owners. Spacious rooms, newer windows, gas heat, 2 yr. old timberline roof, country style kitchen with newer appliances, woodburning fireplace in living room, hardwood floors under wall to wall carpeting and 4 season room with new berber carpeting.

10. 2007-03-21
    listed $249,000 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Lovely 2 bedroom ranch waiting for new owners. Spacious rooms, newer windows, gas heat, 2 yr. old timberline roof, country style kitchen with newer appliances, woodburning fireplace in living room, hardwood floors under wall to wall carpeting and 4 season room with new berber carpeting.

11. 1982-03-01
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,320 · $443/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,329 · $611/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,009/yr (+$167/mo · 37.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,320
• − Insurance: −$6,994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,746
• − Management: −$3,746
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$4,896
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,175
• After-tax cash flow: $2,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forked River, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 21,136

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.91%
• Current HPI: 352.355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+621.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-02-21 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $375,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-03 Coming Soon $375,000 MOMLS
• 2011-10-19 Sold (MLS) $125,501 MOMLS
• 2011-07-22 Listed $125,000 MOMLS
• 2007-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $228,500 Public Records
• 2007-08-17 Sold (MLS) $228,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-03-21 Listed $249,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1982-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,320 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.