406/408 S Merrill St · New Boston, TX 75570

$69,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 286 Days on market

1.40 ac lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

First time on the market in decades! This older family home is full of history and heart. It needs a little TLC, but offers a spacious yard and plenty of potential to make it your own. Solid bones, great location, and room to grow - just waiting for the next chapter.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Great location
• 1.4 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS YARD
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,178 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• New Boston ISD (town): math 34% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #518 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.70%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $22,667
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.25×
• Total profit: $63,578
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75570

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,143/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $621

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $573	-5% $553	+0% $533	+5% $514	+10% $494
Rent	-10% $431	-5% $482	+0% $533	+5% $585	+10% $636
Rate	-1.0pp $569	-0.5pp $551	base $533	+0.5pp $515	+1.0pp $497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-10
   price $69,900
3. 2025-08-13
   price $74,900
4. 2025-06-26
   listed $79,900 Active
5. 1952-03-25
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,143 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$137/yr (+$11/mo · 11.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,143
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $5,628
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,351
• After-tax cash flow: $5,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Boston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832340
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,689
• Composite: 30.06/100
• National rank: #6351
• State rank: #518 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Boston

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1178
• US rank: #20597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Boston, TX
• City population: 11,047
• Population (ZIP): 11,047

Population outlook (Bowie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,699 people
• By 2030: 94,824 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 94,870 · +0.2%
• By 2050: 93,686 · -1.1%
• By 2075: 90,082 · -4.9%
• By 2100: 76,579 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Bowie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.3% · R 74.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+41.5 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.50%
• Current HPI: 156.8696
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — TBOR
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $69,900 TBOR
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $74,900 TBOR
• 2025-06-26 Listed $79,900 TBOR
• 1952-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,143 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.