Brower Plan · Jarrell, TX 76537

$204,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,213 sqft · SingleFamily · 98 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Belmar Collection offers new single-family homes for sale at the Rancho Del Cielo masterplan in Jarrell, TX. With low HOA fees and a great price point, this collection offers a great opportunity for firs-time homebuyers. Residents will enjoy amenities including pocket parks, green spaces, a swimming pool and picnic areas. The community is also located near University Oaks, Berry Springs Parka and Preserve, Wolf Ranch Town Center shopping and just 10 miles from downtown Georgetown for even more shopping, dining and entertainment options.

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Near university oaks
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• NEAR UNIVERSITY OAKS
• NEAR BERRY SPRINGS PARK
• NEAR WOLF RANCH TOWN CENTER

🏗️ New construction. The $204,499 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $209,770.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $204k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1040 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 81d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,527 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,770
• List price: $204,499
• Delta: -2.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
515 Mccloud Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-2%)	1mo	$164,999	$138	96
518 Mccloud Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-2%)	3mo	$169,999	$143	94
254 Kings Row Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,213 (0%)	5mo	$200,990	$166	87
444 Jones Beach Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,213 (0%)	4mo	$188,990	$156	87
121 Texas Angel Way	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+12%)	4mo	$198,999	$147	76
514 Jones Beach Cv	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+12%)	1mo	$195,999	$145	76
309 Kings Row Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+12%)	1mo	$205,499	$152	75
512 Texas Angel Way	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+5%)	3mo	$195,000	$153	72
519 Mccloud Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,033 (-15%)	3mo	$168,999	$164	72
468 Jones Beach Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+12%)	4mo	$220,990	$163	70
261 Kings Row Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+12%)	4mo	$200,990	$148	70
420 Jones Beach Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+12%)	4mo	$217,990	$161	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-45,966
• Equity at exit: $31,277

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-68,177
• Equity at exit: $18,137

Cash invested: $58,736 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $199,990 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: 57% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1040
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,100
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,147/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,835

Max offer price $193,793

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $-38	+0% $-110	+5% $-183	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-177	+0% $-110	+5% $-43	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-5	-0.5pp $-57	base $-110	+0.5pp $-165	+1.0pp $-220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,442
• Closing costs: $6,293
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	63d	1	0.03mi
124 Hellcats Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	42d	1	0.07mi
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	119d	1	0.07mi
101 Hellcats Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,450	$1.02	24d	1	0.08mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	116d	1	0.08mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	139d	1	0.08mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	100d	1	0.08mi
136 Jack Browning Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,499	$1.25	24d	1	0.13mi
505 Sergeant Murphy Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,375	$1.15	42d	1	0.19mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	139d	1	0.20mi
449 Jones Beach Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	24d	1	0.21mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	110d	1	0.23mi
256 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,545	$1.07	24d	1	0.25mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	139d	1	0.27mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	98d	1	0.27mi
408 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,600	$1.16	24d	1	0.32mi
128 Burt Rainey Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,750	$1.44	80d	1	0.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 112 The Gipper, Jarrell TX 76537Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $195,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan homePlan name: BrowerFacing direction not specified
• Construction: New construction (plan)Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,213

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Brower)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-14
   days on market $204,499 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-08-13
   days on market $204,499 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-08-11
   days on market $204,499 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-08-10
   days on market $204,499 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-08-09
   days on market $204,499 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-08-08
   days on market $204,499 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-08-06
   days on market $204,499 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-08-05
   days on market $204,499 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-08-04
   days on market $204,499 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-08-03
    days on market $204,499 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-07-31
    days on market $204,499 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-07-30
    days on market $204,499 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-07-30
    days on market $204,499 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-07-28
    days on market $204,499 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-07-26
    days on market $204,499 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-07-24
    days on market $204,499 Active 77 DOM
17. 2026-07-23
    days on market $204,499 Active 76 DOM
18. 2026-07-22
    days on market $204,499 Active 75 DOM
19. 2026-07-21
    days on market $204,499 Active 74 DOM
20. 2026-07-20
    days on market $204,499 Active 73 DOM
21. 2026-07-18
    days on market $204,499 Active 71 DOM
22. 2026-07-18
    days on market $204,499 Active 70 DOM
23. 2026-07-16
    days on market $204,499 Active 69 DOM
24. 2026-07-15
    days on market $204,499 Active 68 DOM
25. 2026-07-14
    days on market $204,499 Active 67 DOM
26. 2026-07-13
    days on market $204,499 Active 66 DOM
27. 2026-07-13
    days on market $204,499 Active 65 DOM
28. 2026-07-11
    days on market $204,499 Active 64 DOM
29. 2026-07-10
    days on market $204,499 Active 63 DOM
30. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $204,499 Active 62 DOM
31. 2026-07-07
    days on market $203,749 Active 60 DOM
32. 2026-07-06
    price $203,749 Active 59 DOM
33. 2026-07-06
    days on market $202,999 Active 59 DOM
34. 2026-07-05
    days on market $202,999 Active 58 DOM
35. 2026-07-03
    days on market $202,999 Active 56 DOM
36. 2026-07-02
    price $202,999 Active 55 DOM
37. 2026-07-02
    days on market $202,249 Active 55 DOM
38. 2026-07-01
    days on market $202,249 Active 54 DOM
39. 2026-06-30
    price $202,249 Active 53 DOM
40. 2026-06-30
    days on market $201,499 Active 53 DOM
41. 2026-06-29
    days on market $201,499 Active 52 DOM
42. 2026-06-28
    days on market $201,499 Active 51 DOM
43. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $201,499 Active 50 DOM
44. 2026-06-26
    days on market $200,749 Active 49 DOM
45. 2026-06-24
    days on market $200,749 Active 47 DOM
46. 2026-06-22
    pricedays on market $200,749 Active 45 DOM
47. 2026-06-21
    days on market $199,999 Active 44 DOM
48. 2026-06-18
    price $199,999 Active 41 DOM
49. 2026-06-18
    days on market $199,249 Active 41 DOM
50. 2026-06-18
    price $199,249 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,750
• − Property taxes: −$3,147
• − Insurance: −$1,049
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − Depreciation: −$6,102
• Taxable loss: −$4,960
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,190
• After-tax cash flow: $-135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Jarrell, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for first-time homebuyers with low HOA fees and access to nearby amenities and shopping centers.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 112 The Gipper, Jarrell TX 76537Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $195,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan homePlan name: BrowerFacing direction not specified
• Construction: New construction (plan)Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,213

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Brower)