2605 S Tomahawk Rd #278 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$47,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 29 Days on market

Built 1973 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

TWO MO FREE RENT! Enjoy the Superstition Mountain view from this clean and neat ''oldie but goodie'' 2BR 2BA Furnished home. There's even fencing for your pet. It's on a corner with a very large covered patio area in the desirable 55+ Raindance Mobile home Park. There's also a shed for storage and/or workshop & a shed for garden tools. The kitchen offers recessed lighting, plenty of cabinets, a built in breakfast bar and a large pantry. Retreat to your unique primary bedroom with a desk and even a sink for convenience. There's a fenced in back yard that is very rare plus a dog park across the street. So many activities at the community center or choose the billiard room, workout room,

Key facts

• Shed for storage
• Community center
• Large covered patio

Tags

• SUPERSTITION MOUNTAIN VIEW
• CORNER LOT
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• SHED FOR STORAGE
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• COMMUNITY CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From Hwy 60 go north on Tomahawk. The entrance will be on the right. Go forward to Navajo. It's on the left on the corner.
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease amount $786.87 per month; Association covers sewer, street maintenance, trash and water; Community pool; Pickleball courts; Community spa (heated); Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Septic (in & connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Mountain view
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood frame construction; Rolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Private street(s); Storage; Gravel/stone front; Gravel/stone back; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Refrigerator; Built-in electric oven
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 9+ foot flat ceilings; Furnished (see remarks); No interior steps; Pantry; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $926 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.5% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $331 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,181 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.87%
• DSCR: 4.69
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,088
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2605 S Tomahawk Rd #181	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-4%)	4mo	$125,000	$104	84
2605 S Tomahawk Rd #46	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	6mo	$57,900	$43	79
2359 S Tomahawk Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,297 (+4%)	5mo	$170,000	$131	76
3500 S Tomahawk Rd #188	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$75,000	$60	71
3355 S Cortez Rd #66	0.65mi	2/1.5	1,260 (+1%)	7mo	$109,000	$87	60
3500 S Tomahawk Rd #153	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$77,500	$58	54
1392 E 20th Ave	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	6mo	$205,000	$146	53
3355 S Cortez Rd #98	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,356 (+9%)	5mo	$110,000	$81	51
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #88	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,316 (+5%)	9mo	$71,000	$54	51
2435 S Acacia Rd	0.55mi	2/1.0	1,348 (+8%)	9mo	$833,000	$618	49
3500 S Tomahawk Rd #160	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	10mo	$95,000	$71	49
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #91	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,428 (+14%)	1mo	$85,000	$60	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $48,997
• Equity at exit: $7,142

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.18×
• Total profit: $109,723
• Equity at exit: $4,142

Cash invested: $13,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$251
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$60 /mo · $718/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $926

Break-even live

Break-even rent $419

Max offer price $47,900

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,975
• Closing costs: $1,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1540 E 25th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	12d	1	0.15mi
3448 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,848	$1.56	11d	1	0.59mi
3333 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,900	$2.09	24d	1	0.61mi
700 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,795	$1.54	5d	1	0.68mi
501 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,150	$1.60	5d	1	0.80mi
501 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,150	$1.60	3d	1	0.80mi
705 E Kachina Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,655	$1.90	5d	1	0.84mi
403 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	4d	1	0.85mi
1297 E Broadway Ave Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,937	$2.03	1d	29	1.03mi
975 S Royal Palm Rd Apache Junction, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,325	$1.32	2d	13	1.14mi
452 E 10th Ave Unit 104 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	783	$1,000	$1.28	22d	1	1.26mi
2061 S Apache Dr Unit 1 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,095	$1.37	5d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $47,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $47,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $47,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $47,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $47,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $47,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $47,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $47,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $47,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $47,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $47,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $47,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    listed $47,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥111°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,683
• − Property taxes: −$718
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − Depreciation: −$1,393
• Taxable income: $11,007
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,642
• After-tax cash flow: $8,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, which would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — dated design
• Major bathroom fixtures — basic design
• Major kitchen appliances — old and outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modern design
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modern design
• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated design	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · basic design	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen appliances · old and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modern design ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modern design ↑
• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $47,900 ARMLS