219 Fernwood Dr · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$67,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Land · 137 Days on market

Built 1977 0.41 ac lot $59/sqft · 33% below area Est $100k · 32% under $6/mo HOA ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owner Financing Available. Investor opportunity in Oak Harbor Community! This three bedroom, two bathroom mobile home sits on a desirable corner lot with a water view of Cedar Creek Lake. Features include a wood-burning fireplace in living room addition and access to two boat ramps and a fishing pier in adjoining neighborhood. Property includes three separate lots offering additional development or expansion potential, along with a large, detached storage building. Mobile homes are allowed. The home previously served as a rental and will require new water lines for home, water supply line ready under house with easy access. Needs light fixtures, cabinets, and repairs throughout, making it an excellent value-add investment. Great opportunity for a homeowner looking to renovate, an investor to hold as a rental or redevelop in this established lakeside community. Owner Financing Available

Key facts

• Three separate lots
• Water view
• Corner lot

Tags

• WATER VIEW
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FULL SIZE LAUNDRY ROOM
• DETACHED STORAGE BUILDING
• CORNER LOT
• THREE SEPARATE LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 3.2% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $467 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.50%
• DSCR: 3.60
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,000
• List price: $67,500
• Delta: -32.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $42,811
• Equity at exit: $10,064

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $93,771
• Equity at exit: $5,836

Cash invested: $18,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,680 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$354
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $209/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $921

Break-even live

Break-even rent $513

Max offer price $67,500

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $960	-5% $940	+0% $921	+5% $902	+10% $883
Rent	-10% $789	-5% $855	+0% $921	+5% $988	+10% $1,054
Rate	-1.0pp $955	-0.5pp $939	base $921	+0.5pp $904	+1.0pp $886

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,875
• Closing costs: $2,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Queenswood Dr Mabank, TX	4.0	2.0	1376	$1,595	$1.16	44d	1	0.28mi
367 Box Rd Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,600	$1.32	44d	1	0.89mi
114 Sierra Madre St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,800	$1.42	44d	1	1.21mi
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	44d	1	1.23mi
602 Legendary Ln Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,600	$1.10	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $67,500 Pending 137 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $67,500 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $67,500 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-05-06
   price $67,500 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   Owner Financing Available. Investor opportunity in Oak Harbor Community! This three bedroom, two bathroom mobile home sits on a desirable corner lot with a water view of Cedar Creek Lake. Features include a wood-burning fireplace in living room addition and access to two boat ramps and a fishing pier in adjoining neighborhood. Property includes three separate lots offering additional development or expansion potential, along with a large, detached storage building. Mobile homes are allowed. The home previously served as a rental and will require new water lines for home, water supply line ready under house with easy access. Needs light fixtures, cabinets, and repairs throughout, making it an excellent value-add investment. Great opportunity for a homeowner looking to renovate, an investor to hold as a rental or redevelop in this established lakeside community. Owner Financing Available

5. 2026-03-24
   price $69,500 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   Owner Financing Available. Investor opportunity in Oak Harbor Community! This three bedroom, two bathroom mobile home sits on a desirable corner lot with a water view of Cedar Creek Lake. Features include a wood-burning fireplace in living room addition and access to two boat ramps and a fishing pier in adjoining neighborhood. Property includes three separate lots offering additional development or expansion potential, along with a large, detached storage building. Mobile homes are allowed. The home previously served as a rental and will require new water lines for home, water supply line ready under house with easy access. Needs light fixtures, cabinets, and repairs throughout, making it an excellent value-add investment. Great opportunity for a homeowner looking to renovate, an investor to hold as a rental or redevelop in this established lakeside community. Owner Financing Available

6. 2026-02-03
   price $74,500 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   Owner Financing Available. Investor opportunity in Oak Harbor Community! This three bedroom, two bathroom mobile home sits on a desirable corner lot with a water view of Cedar Creek Lake. Features include a wood-burning fireplace in living room addition and access to two boat ramps and a fishing pier in adjoining neighborhood. Property includes three separate lots offering additional development or expansion potential, along with a large, detached storage building. Mobile homes are allowed. The home previously served as a rental and will require new water lines for home, water supply line ready under house with easy access. Needs light fixtures, cabinets, and repairs throughout, making it an excellent value-add investment. Great opportunity for a homeowner looking to renovate, an investor to hold as a rental or redevelop in this established lakeside community. Owner Financing Available

7. 2026-01-14
   listed $79,500 Active 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   Owner Financing Available. Investor opportunity in Oak Harbor Community! This three bedroom, two bathroom mobile home sits on a desirable corner lot with a water view of Cedar Creek Lake. Features include a wood-burning fireplace in living room addition and access to two boat ramps and a fishing pier in adjoining neighborhood. Property includes three separate lots offering additional development or expansion potential, along with a large, detached storage building. Mobile homes are allowed. The home previously served as a rental and will require new water lines for home, water supply line ready under house with easy access. Needs light fixtures, cabinets, and repairs throughout, making it an excellent value-add investment. Great opportunity for a homeowner looking to renovate, an investor to hold as a rental or redevelop in this established lakeside community. Owner Financing Available

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $209 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,235 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,026/yr (+$86/mo · 491.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,781
• − Property taxes: −$209
• − Insurance: −$338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,612
• − Management: −$1,612
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$1,964
• Taxable income: $10,567
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,536
• After-tax cash flow: $8,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $67,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $69,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $74,500 NTREIS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $79,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+22.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $209 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.