31848 Railroad canyon Rd · Canyon Lake, CA 92587

$304,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · Condo public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1976 $752/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * * COME STEAL A REAL DEAL * * * * * * * MOVE IN READY CONDO * * * * * * 2 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHROOMS, LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM. “SELLER WANTS SOLD” AND WILL CONTRIBUTE UP TO MAX 3% OF THE SALES PRICE TOWARDS BUYER COSTS ( “Seller will credit buyer up to a maximum 3% of sales price towards closing costs if negotiated in final signed counter offer. ” ) * * * * * SUBMIT ALL OFFERS * * * * *

Key facts

• Swimming pools
• 18 hole golf course
• Community pool area

Tags

• CANYON LAKE CONDOMINIUM
• COMMUNITY POOL AREA
• PRIVATE LAKE FOR BOATING
• 18 HOLE GOLF COURSE
• MULTIPLE PARKS AND BEACHES
• SWIMMING POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number: 355300025
• Financial info: Subject to special assessments
• HOA & community: Part of an association (CLPOA); Monthly association fee of $362; Secondary monthly association fee of $390; Community amenities include sport court, hiking trails, pickleball, horse trails, playground, dock, electricity, tennis, golf, pool, dog park, barbecue, club house, picnic area, biking trails; Community features include watersports, hiking, fishing, riding/stables, lake, biking, park, dog park; Community of 12 units

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 garage space, 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Attached property in a planned development; Two total stories; Single-unit (one total unit)
• Construction: Year built source: public records
• Exterior features: House structure; Association, community, and private pool access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Main floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Two levels; Main-level entry; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside (washer and dryer included); Washer hookup; Laundry in closet; Laundry on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-190/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (0.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $305k).
• Recommended offer: $300k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#825 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Canyon Elementary (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #311 of 1,571 statewide, top 21%, 789 students, 50% FRL); Canyon Lake Middle (math 44% / reading 64%, grade B-, #78 of 498 statewide, top 15%, 955 students, 51% FRL); Temescal Canyon High (math 50% / reading 90%, grade B+, #112 of 1,170 statewide, top 10%, 2,176 students, 59% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lake Elsinore Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 255 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $305k implies a 486% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-50,094
• Equity at exit: $45,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-43,581
• Equity at exit: $26,367

Cash invested: $85,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92587

• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,227 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,043/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$752
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,247

Max offer price $302,150

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $70	+0% $-16	+5% $-102	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-271	-5% $-143	+0% $-16	+5% $112	+10% $239
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $62	base $-16	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,238
• Closing costs: $9,148
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30820 Early Round Dr Canyon Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,450	$2.45	7d	1	0.44mi
22910 Pheasant Dr Canyon Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1535	$3,500	$2.28	26d	1	0.46mi
30505 Canyon Hills Rd #1502 Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.5	1565	$3,500	$2.24	20d	1	0.57mi
30505 Canyon Hills Rd Lake Elsinore, CA	2.0	2.5	1274	$2,725	$2.14	45d	2	0.59mi
34281 Woodmont Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,995	$1.69	13d	1	0.93mi
22392 Canyon Club Dr Canyon Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1423	$2,600	$1.83	45d	1	1.06mi
24024 Roybal Way Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.5	1792	$3,400	$1.90	18d	1	1.07mi
24024 Savory Way Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.5	1805	$3,000	$1.66	45d	1	1.17mi
30345 Little Harbor Dr Canyon Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1611	$3,945	$2.45	0d	1	1.18mi
23685 Casa Bonita Ave Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1277	$2,795	$2.19	0d	1	1.29mi
21963 Strawberry Ln Canyon Lake, CA	3.0	3.0	1347	$3,950	$2.93	26d	1	1.38mi
30062 Big Range Rd Canyon Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	1150	$2,400	$2.09	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $752 · $9,024/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $304,950 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,950 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,950 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,950 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,950 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,950 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,950 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,950 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,950 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $304,950 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 686-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    listed $304,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,043 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,274/yr (+$106/mo · 122.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,082
• − Property taxes: −$1,043
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,098
• − Management: −$3,098
• − HOA: −$9,024
• − Depreciation: −$8,871
• Taxable loss: −$5,017
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,204
• After-tax cash flow: $1,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Elsinore Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600027
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,829
• Composite: 37.01/100
• National rank: #4518
• State rank: #210 of 517 in CA

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #825
• US rank: #23089

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 18,382

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -403.17%
• Current HPI: 336.4209
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+384.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $304,950 CRMLS
• 2009-06-23 Sold (MLS) $52,000 CRMLS
• 2009-06-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-05-28 Listed $55,500 CRMLS
• 2009-04-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-10-01 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2005-07-08 Sold (MLS) $214,500 CRMLS
• 2005-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $214,500 Public Records
• 2005-04-07 Listed $225,900 CRMLS
• 2001-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,043 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.