Dawn Plan · Balm, FL 33598

$346,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily · 337 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space for year-round outdoor lounging. The owner's suite is in the rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for overnight guests or residents needing additional privacy, as well as a flex space that can transform to meet the household's needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $346,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $373,375.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $347k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-376 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 962 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 120d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $279,021 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.32%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,375
• List price: $346,900
• Delta: -7.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13608 New Jade Ave	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,020 (-7%)	2mo	$374,990	$186	69
13609 New Jade Ave	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,020 (-7%)	1mo	$359,990	$178	68
13607 New Jade Ave	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,336 (+8%)	1mo	$371,760	$159	68
13603 New Jade Ave	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,020 (-7%)	2mo	$360,990	$179	68
15039 Coltman Hill Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,305 (+6%)	4mo	$350,000	$152	65
14959 Topaz Blue St	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,174 (0%)	12mo	$369,900	$170	60
15023 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,882 (-13%)	1mo	$355,990	$189	60
15024 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,882 (-13%)	1mo	$357,990	$190	60
15029 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,882 (-13%)	2mo	$364,240	$194	58
13606 New Jade Ave	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,490 (+14%)	0mo	$393,990	$158	53
13610 New Jade Ave	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,490 (+14%)	0mo	$409,990	$165	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-82,280
• Equity at exit: $66,637

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-124,888
• Equity at exit: $51,438

Cash invested: $104,545 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.8 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $350,000 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 43 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 962
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,790 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,958
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$467 /mo · $5,601/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,266

Max offer price $318,961

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-118	-5% $-247	+0% $-376	+5% $-505	+10% $-634
Rent	-10% $-596	-5% $-486	+0% $-376	+5% $-266	+10% $-156
Rate	-1.0pp $-188	-0.5pp $-281	base $-376	+0.5pp $-473	+1.0pp $-571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,344
• Closing costs: $11,201
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15007 Coltman Hill Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,550	$1.33	120d	1	0.33mi
13191 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	84d	1	0.89mi
13181 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	120d	1	0.90mi
13095 Calcite Blue Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,300	$1.19	113d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $346,900 Active 337 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $346,900 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $346,900 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $346,900 Active 334 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $346,900 Active 333 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $346,900 Active 332 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $346,900 Active 331 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $346,900 Active 330 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $346,900 Active 329 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $346,900 Active 328 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $346,900 Active 327 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $346,900 Active 326 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $346,900 Active 325 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $346,900 Active 324 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $346,900 Active 318 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $346,900 Active 317 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $346,900 Active 316 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $346,900 Active 313 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $346,900 Active 312 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $346,900 Active 311 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $346,900 Active 310 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $346,900 Active 309 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $346,900 Active 308 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $346,900 Active 307 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $346,900 Active 306 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $346,900 Active 305 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $346,900 Active 304 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $346,900 Active 302 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $346,900 Active 301 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $346,900 Active 300 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $346,900 Active 299 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $346,900 Active 298 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $346,900 Active 297 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $346,900 Active 296 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $346,900 Active 295 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $346,900 Active 294 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $346,900 Active 293 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $346,900 Active 292 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $346,900 Active 291 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $346,900 Active 290 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $346,900 Active 288 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $346,900 Active 287 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $346,900 Active 286 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $346,900 Active 285 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $346,900 Active 282 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $346,900 Active 280 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $346,900 Active 279 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $346,900 Active 277 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $346,900 Active 275 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $346,900 Active 274 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,915
• − Property taxes: −$5,601
• − Insurance: −$1,867
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,679
• − Management: −$2,679
• − Depreciation: −$10,862
• Taxable loss: −$11,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,669
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,870–$32,610 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained appearance. It is ready for a new owner and could benefit from some minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves resale value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wimauma Elementary School F FL #1,882/2,144 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Shields Middle School F FL #486/571 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Lennard High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $346,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $346,400 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $345,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $345,400 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $342,400 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $340,400 Zillow
• 2025-10-22 Listed $373,400 Zillow