8845 Downey St · Bayou La Batre, AL 36509

$39,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1991 0.62 ac lot $39/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable opportunity near the coast! This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Bayou La Batre is a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity with a little TLC. Featuring a practical floor plan and a motivated seller ready to deal, this home is priced aggressively and won’t last long.

Key facts

• 0.62 acre lot
• Built 1991
• Listed 131 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($560/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($934 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 4.5% in Bayou La Batre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#493 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Anna F Booth Elementary School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #171 of 627 statewide, top 31%, 409 students, 76% FRL); Peter F Alba Middle School (math 12% / reading 39%, grade F, #158 of 257 statewide, top 63%, 511 students, 75% FRL); Alma Bryant High School (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #184 of 305 statewide, top 61%, 1,617 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.70%
• DSCR: 3.26
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,106
• List price: $39,999
• Delta: -56.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13870 Railroad St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,107 (+7%)	16mo	$15,000	$14	41
13885 Jernberg Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,114 (+8%)	14mo	$90,000	$81	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-3,240
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $2,098
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36509

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $459/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $39,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $58	+0% $47	+5% $35	+10% $24
Rent	-10% $-27	-5% $10	+0% $47	+5% $84	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $57	base $47	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,999 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,999 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,999 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,999 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,999 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,999 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,999 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,999 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,999 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,999 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,999 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,999 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,999 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,999 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,999 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,999 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,999 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-02-24
    price $39,999 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Affordable opportunity near the coast! This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Bayou La Batre is a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity with a little TLC. Featuring a practical floor plan and a motivated seller ready to deal, this home is priced aggressively and won’t last long.

19. 2026-02-19
    price $49,999 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Affordable opportunity near the coast! This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Bayou La Batre is a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity with a little TLC. Featuring a practical floor plan and a motivated seller ready to deal, this home is priced aggressively and won’t last long.

20. 2026-02-10
    listed $55,000 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Affordable opportunity near the coast! This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Bayou La Batre is a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity with a little TLC. Featuring a practical floor plan and a motivated seller ready to deal, this home is priced aggressively and won’t last long.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $459 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $459 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$459
• − Insurance: −$5,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$897
• − Management: −$897
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$56
• After-tax cash flow: $504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Bayou La Batre

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #493
• US rank: #24654

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayou La Batre, AL
• City population: 1,462
• Population (ZIP): 1,462

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Asian 33% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 10% Vietnamese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.60%
• Current HPI: 170.7495
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-27.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $39,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $49,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $55,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $459 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.