12512 CR 685 · Ridge Manor, FL 33597

$177,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1972 0.33 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller is MOTIVATED and Ready to Negotiate! Price Improvement in Place! Enjoy country living with the convenience of town nearby! This fixer-upper sits on a corner lot that is over 1/4 acre of cleared land with beautiful mature trees. The property includes a single-family home with a basement. This home is a fixer-upper, roof repair and seawall repair to the basement is in need of repair. Equipped with a private well and septic, this property is ideally located near the Withlacoochee State Forest, perfect for nature lovers and outdoor enthusiasts. Convenient access to Hwy 50/Cortez Blvd, Hwy 301, I-75, and the Florida Turnpike makes commuting easy. You’re just minutes from shopping, d

Key facts

• Over 1/4 acre
• Private well
• Septic

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OVER 1/4 ACRE
• MATURE TREES
• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO HWY 50

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Zoning: R1; Lot is approximately 0.33 acres (corner lot, cleared, in county); Vegetation includes oak trees; One well and one septic on property
• HOA & community: No HOA/association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Public maintained paved road access
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Block, stone, and frame construction; Shingle roof; Partial basement
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Exterior storage (shed)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Wall/Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($246/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Ridge Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#736 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Webster Elementary School (math 61% / reading 51%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 748 students, 68% FRL); South Sumter High School (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #294 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,045 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 61% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sumter average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $178k implies a 917% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,291 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,880
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12594 CR 684	0.10mi	2/1.0	748 (+3%)	17mo	$89,900	$120	75
12740 Cr-687	0.28mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	21mo	$64,900	$97	58
12547 SW 49th Way	0.08mi	2/1.5	624 (-14%)	18mo	$159,900	$256	56
12232 SW 44th Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0	720 (-1%)	21mo	$95,000	$132	56
4528 SW 118th Ln	0.73mi	2/2.0	784 (+8%)	18mo	$90,000	$115	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-27,598
• Equity at exit: $26,525

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-22,659
• Equity at exit: $15,382

Cash invested: $49,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33597

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $779/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,357

Max offer price $177,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,475
• Closing costs: $5,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $177,900 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,900 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,900 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,900 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $177,900 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,900 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $177,900 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,900 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $177,900 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $177,900 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $177,900 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,900 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $177,900 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $177,900
17. 2026-03-14
    price $167,900
18. 2026-03-06
    price $145,900
19. 2026-02-16
    price $150,900
20. 2026-01-26
    price $175,900
21. 2026-01-15
    listed $185,900 Active
22. 1977-12-01
    soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,477 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$697/yr (+$58/mo · 89.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,965
• − Property taxes: −$779
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − Depreciation: −$5,175
• Taxable loss: −$2,870
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$689
• After-tax cash flow: $935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ridge Manor

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #15912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,424

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
• Current HPI: 282.5139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+916.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $177,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $167,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $145,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $150,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $175,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $185,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1977-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $779 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.