31789 Kestrel Calling Dr · San Antonio, FL 33576

$259,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,602 sqft · Townhouse · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 1,700 sqft lot Garage $212/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. Under Construction. The Sand Dollar Live, where every day feels like a vacation in this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome in Shores at Mirada. This home features 9'4" ceilings on the first floor and an open living space that flows into a modern kitchen complete with 42-inch cabinets, a tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a center island. Upstairs with 9-foot ceilings, the spacious primary suite offers a walk-in closet and private bath, while two additional bedrooms provide flexible space. A one-car garage adds everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Playgrounds
• Mirada lagoon access

Tags

• MIRADA LAGOON ACCESS
• PLAYGROUNDS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• BASKETBALL

🏗️ New construction. The $259,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,495.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $260k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#454 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Antonio Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Pasco Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 903 students, 73% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 510 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $240,027 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,495
• List price: $259,990
• Delta: -4.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31791 Kestrel Calling Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,602 (0%)	1mo	$269,990	$169	99
31785 Kestrel Calling Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,602 (0%)	2mo	$260,990	$163	98
31799 Kestrel Calling Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,602 (0%)	2mo	$260,900	$163	98
31788 Kestrel Calling Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,602 (0%)	2mo	$255,990	$160	97
31837 Kestrel Calling Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,602 (0%)	2mo	$270,000	$169	96
31781 Kestrel Calling Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,419 (-11%)	1mo	$279,990	$197	80
31551 Azure Beach Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+4%)	2mo	$270,000	$161	80
31509 Azure Beach Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+4%)	2mo	$257,990	$154	78
31387 Spanish Mission Rd	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+4%)	2mo	$302,390	$181	76
31542 Azure Beach Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+12%)	1mo	$399,131	$223	68
31546 Azure Beach Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+12%)	2mo	$398,990	$223	67
32099 Eastern Redbud Br	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,639 (+2%)	1mo	$259,900	$159	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.32% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-55,014
• Equity at exit: $48,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-80,765
• Equity at exit: $38,131

Cash invested: $76,299 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 70 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.6 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $275,900 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 108 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33576

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 510
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,429
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,087/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$212
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,652

Max offer price $243,708

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-105	+0% $-199	+5% $-293	+10% $-387
Rent	-10% $-389	-5% $-294	+0% $-199	+5% $-104	+10% $-9
Rate	-1.0pp $-62	-0.5pp $-130	base $-199	+0.5pp $-270	+1.0pp $-341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,124
• Closing costs: $8,175
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31799 Kestrel Calling Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1602	$2,100	$1.31	32d	1	0.02mi
31825 Kestrel Calling Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1602	$2,300	$1.44	32d	1	0.04mi
31555 Azure Beach Dr Unit 1 San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$2,300	$1.37	10d	1	0.24mi
31555 Azure Beach Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	27d	1	0.24mi
31555 Azure Beach Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	29d	1	0.24mi
11608 Ascend Mirada Blvd San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,265	$1.92	0d	19	0.25mi
31536 Azure Beach Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$2,500	$1.40	62d	1	0.27mi
31530 Azure Beach Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$2,500	$1.40	62d	1	0.27mi
11126 Tidepool Ct Unit Na San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	115d	1	0.33mi
11126 Tidepool Ct San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	117d	1	0.33mi
11813 June Briar Loop San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	2161	$2,495	$1.15	44d	1	0.46mi
11813 June Briar Loop San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	2161	$2,495	$1.15	54d	1	0.46mi
31478 Ocean Ave San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1119	$2,349	$2.10	0d	46	0.52mi
32094 Hawthorne Cottage Pl San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,795	$1.44	119d	1	0.54mi
10835 Sparkly Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.0	1405	$2,395	$1.70	10d	1	0.54mi
11210 Linden Depot Rd San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	100d	1	0.56mi
11708 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	7d	1	0.60mi
11672 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,495	$1.33	110d	1	0.61mi
11629 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,145	$1.48	88d	1	0.64mi
11629 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,100	$1.45	56d	1	0.64mi
11545 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,250	$1.55	119d	1	0.65mi
10864 Penny Gale Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,299	$1.53	83d	1	0.66mi
31457 Mango Fade Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1587	$2,200	$1.39	7d	1	0.68mi
10797 Penny Gale Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1961	$2,300	$1.17	83d	1	0.69mi
10797 Penny Gale Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1961	$2,200	$1.12	64d	1	0.69mi
11360 Cay Spruce Way Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1615	$2,000	$1.24	69d	1	0.69mi
11410 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,100	$1.05	3d	1	0.69mi
11322 Cay Spruce Way Unit n/a Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	2003	$2,420	$1.21	119d	1	0.70mi
11357 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1615	$1,900	$1.18	44d	1	0.72mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	119d	1	0.72mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	97d	1	0.72mi
11429 Linden Depot Rd San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	5d	1	0.73mi
11317 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	2017	$2,250	$1.12	30d	1	0.73mi
11317 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	2017	$2,250	$1.12	58d	1	0.73mi
32067 Eastern Redbud Br San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1639	$2,250	$1.37	119d	1	0.73mi
32079 Eastern Redbud Br San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1639	$2,200	$1.34	64d	1	0.74mi
11232 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1615	$1,955	$1.21	60d	1	0.74mi
11232 Cay Spruce Way Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1615	$1,955	$1.21	63d	1	0.74mi
11212 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,200	$1.19	72d	1	0.75mi
10777 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,300	$1.36	32d	1	0.75mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD presentHome warranty includedPets allowed
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA $212 (includes private road)Annual HOA fees approximately $2,544Association amenities: gated community, fence restrictions, tennis courts, pickleball courts, playground, trailsCommunity features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, dog park, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space, 11 x 18)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerPublic utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouseAttached propertyTwo-levelEast-facingUnder construction (projected completion July 21, 2026)
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: DREAM FINDERS HOMES (model: SAND DOLLAR)Builder license CRC1330890Permit number 2026-22Building area ~1976 total; living area ~1602 builder-providedLevels: Two
• Exterior features: Rear porchSidewalkCleared lotConservation area

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeMicrowaveExhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilingsOpen floor planWalk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupLaundry on upper level

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $259,990 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $259,990 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $259,990 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $259,990 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $259,990 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   pricestatus $259,990 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-07-04
   status $260,990 Pending 18 DOM
8. 2026-07-03
   days on market $260,990 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-07-02
   days on market $260,990 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-07-01
    days on market $260,990 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-30
    days on market $260,990 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-29
    days on market $260,990 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-28
    days on market $260,990 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-27
    days on market $260,990 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-26
    days on market $260,990 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-06-24
    days on market $260,990 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-06-22
    days on market $260,990 Active 7 DOM
18. 2026-06-21
    days on market $260,990 Active 6 DOM
19. 2026-06-18
    days on market $260,990 Active 3 DOM
20. 2026-06-17
    days on market $260,990 Active 2 DOM
21. 2026-06-15
    remarks 694-char remark
22. 2026-06-15
    listed $260,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,264
• − Property taxes: −$4,087
• − Insurance: −$1,362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − HOA: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$7,927
• Taxable loss: −$6,990
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,678
• After-tax cash flow: $-710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary San Antonio Elementary School D+ FL #1,055/2,144 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Pasco Middle School F FL #388/571 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #454
• US rank: #8221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 6,273
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,273
• Household income: $76,388
• Rent vs Own: 4.5% rent · 95.5% own

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Current HPI: 281.7138
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD presentHome warranty includedPets allowed
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA $212 (includes private road)Annual HOA fees approximately $2,544Association amenities: gated community, fence restrictions, tennis courts, pickleball courts, playground, trailsCommunity features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, dog park, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space, 11 x 18)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerPublic utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouseAttached propertyTwo-levelEast-facingUnder construction (projected completion July 21, 2026)
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: DREAM FINDERS HOMES (model: SAND DOLLAR)Builder license CRC1330890Permit number 2026-22Building area ~1976 total; living area ~1602 builder-providedLevels: Two
• Exterior features: Rear porchSidewalkCleared lotConservation area

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeMicrowaveExhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilingsOpen floor planWalk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupLaundry on upper level

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-15 Listed $260,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid