515 Thunderhawk Rd · New Burnside, IL 62972

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,759 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1925 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Older Craftsman(believe Sears Roebuck) Farmhouse On 1.5 Acres M/L. 3 Bedroom/2 Bath, Attached 1 Car Garage. Large Pole Barn. Chicken Shed/Run. Garden Spot OR Horse Paddock. Very Near Shawnee Forest! Ozark IL, Home to Camp Ondessonk, Rock Climbing At Jackson Falls, Jack Davis Trail Ride, Bell Smith Springs & More! NO Restrictions! Yes House Needs Some Fixing/TLC But Priced Right To Get That Done. Located On Hard Surface Rd. Call Today To See!!

Key facts

• Chicken shed
• Hard surface road
• Large pole barn

Tags

• 1.5 ACRES
• LARGE POLE BARN
• CHICKEN SHED
• GARDEN SPOT
• HORSE PADDOCK
• HARD SURFACE ROAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,308 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Vienna Hsd 133 (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #630 of 919 in IL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vienna High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 322 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $823 appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $64,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.91%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $29,100
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.04×
• Total profit: $73,611
• Equity at exit: $31,406

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62972

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,995/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $676

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $65,000 Active
3. 2014-09-01
   soldstatus $100,000
4. 2006-06-07
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,995 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,995 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,995
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,164
• − Management: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,048
• After-tax cash flow: $4,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vienna Hsd 133
• NCES district ID: 1740290
• Math proficiency: 15% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,197
• Composite: 24.12/100
• National rank: #13157
• State rank: #630 of 919 in IL

Livability — New Burnside

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1308
• US rank: #24820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 891

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,355 people
• By 2030: 13,579 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 13,849 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 13,880 · +3.9%
• By 2075: 13,759 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 11,536 · -13.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.3) · D 20.3% · R 78.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.6pp · 2024: -58.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.3 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+42.1 2008: R+34.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Current HPI: 164.2171
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $65,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,995 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.