654 New Holland Ave · Lancaster, PA 17602

$234,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Townhouse public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1926 1,742 sqft lot $226/sqft · 14% below area Est $272k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 654 New Holland Avenue - a 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home in the heart of Lancaster city. Enter through the private front deck to the spacious, open-layout main level just waiting for you to make it your own. The second level has 3 cozy bedrooms, including a primary bedroom with front facing windows and ceiling fan. Enjoy a full bath - boasting a tub/shower combo w/ grab bars for added accessibility - and a skylight! The full, unfinished basement offers endless possibilities for future finishing, but currently has great storage potential w/ washer & dryer hookups. Less than a . 5 mile to McCaskey High School, less than 2 miles from Route 30, and a short walk down the street from the Lancaster Science Factory! Backyard can be converted to off-street parking. Schedule a private showing today!

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Full bath
• Private front deck

Tags

• PRIVATE FRONT DECK
• OPEN-LAYOUT MAIN LEVEL
• FULL BATH
• TUB SHOWER COMBO
• SKYLIGHT
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#71 in PA, #498 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-.
• Lancaster SD (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #500 of 539 in PA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $203k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,610 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,302
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -13.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
726 E Madison St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,102 (+6%)	2mo	$235,000	$213	74
742 E Fulton St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,068 (+3%)	4mo	$205,000	$192	73
665 Lehigh Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	974 (-6%)	4mo	$210,000	$216	70
932 N Plum St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,078 (+4%)	1mo	$271,000	$251	68
343 E Marion St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-0%)	1mo	$255,406	$247	64
923 Lititz Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+2%)	3mo	$140,500	$132	62
717 E Walnut St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,170 (+12%)	2mo	$284,900	$244	60
855 Fountain Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,124 (+8%)	3mo	$241,000	$214	57
247 N Shippen St #411	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,132 (+9%)	2mo	$205,000	$181	48
624 Olive St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,194 (+15%)	5mo	$267,000	$224	48
347 E Orange St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,162 (+12%)	0mo	$210,000	$181	44
353 E Marion St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	945 (-9%)	4mo	$236,000	$250	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-48,005
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-63,602
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17602

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,351/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,037

Max offer price $216,680

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
766 New Holland Ave Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,795	$1.56	14d	1	0.17mi
605 Lehigh Ave Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,395	$1.78	44d	1	0.24mi
738 E Madison St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1102	$1,750	$1.59	44d	1	0.30mi
701 Martha Ave Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	1096	$2,600	$2.37	14d	1	0.37mi
231 N Shippen St #224 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,285	$1.98	14d	1	0.55mi
135 E Ross St Unit 2nd Floor Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	14d	1	0.65mi
225 E King St Unit 2 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.5	1075	$2,600	$2.42	44d	1	0.81mi
225 E King St Unit 1 Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	957	$1,950	$2.04	14d	1	0.81mi
425 N Prince St Apt 206 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,995	$1.75	44d	1	0.87mi
202 N Queen St Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	697	$2,718	$3.90	14d	12	0.89mi
1000 Strand WAY Neffsville, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$2,850	$2.76	14d	15	0.92mi
1216 Clark St Lancaster, PA	4.0	1.5	1270	$2,195	$1.73	14d	1	0.95mi
767 Clermont Ave Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	14d	1	0.96mi
816 N Prince St Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$2,195	$2.76	14d	7	0.97mi
50 Knollwood Dr Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.5	1067	$1,925	$1.80	14d	3	1.01mi
118 N Prince St Lancaster, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1274	$4,703	$3.69	14d	48	1.03mi
1405 Oregon Pike Apt A Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	44d	1	1.08mi
5000 Foundry Dr Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$2,575	$2.65	14d	10	1.14mi
128 N Mulberry St Unit 1 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	23d	1	1.16mi
1522 Princess Anne Dr Lancaster, PA	4.0	2.0	1352	$2,400	$1.78	44d	1	1.23mi
433 W Walnut St Apt 2 Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,840	$2.04	23d	1	1.25mi
549 Howard Ave Lancaster, PA	4.0	1.0	1439	$1,700	$1.18	44d	1	1.28mi
214 W Strawberry St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1175	$1,345	$1.14	21d	1	1.29mi
537 Woodward St Lancaster, PA	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,650	$1.28	23d	1	1.33mi
345 1/2 Beaver St Lancaster, PA	4.0	1.0	1382	$2,095	$1.52	44d	1	1.35mi
404 Beaver St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,425	$1.39	23d	1	1.39mi
37 E Filbert St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,750	$1.75	44d	1	1.43mi
1635 Old Philadelphia Pike Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1160	$1,845	$1.59	14d	1	1.44mi
513 Poplar St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.5	1184	$1,695	$1.43	44d	1	1.46mi
529 Manor St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1434	$1,635	$1.14	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $234,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $234,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $234,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $234,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $234,900 Active 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Welcome to 654 New Holland Avenue - a 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home in the heart of Lancaster city. Enter through the private front deck to the spacious, open-layout main level just waiting for you to make it your own. The second level has 3 cozy bedrooms, including a primary bedroom with front facing windows and ceiling fan. Enjoy a full bath - boasting a tub/shower combo w/ grab bars for added accessibility - and a skylight! The full, unfinished basement offers endless possibilities for future finishing, but currently has great storage potential w/ washer & dryer hookups. Less than a . 5 mile to McCaskey High School, less than 2 miles from Route 30, and a short walk down the street from the Lancaster Science Factory! Backyard can be converted to off-street parking. Schedule a private showing today!

17. 2026-01-08
    historical
18. 2025-11-11
    price $234,900
19. 2025-10-09
    listed $242,999 Active
20. 2023-04-14
    soldstatus $203,000 Closed
21. 2023-03-11
    status Pending
22. 2023-02-18
    listed $208,000 Active
23. 2023-02-16
    historical $208,000
24. 2020-10-15
    soldstatus $138,000
25. 2020-10-12
    soldstatus $138,000 Closed
26. 2020-09-28
    status Pending
27. 2020-09-25
    listed $135,000 Active
28. 2016-06-13
    soldstatus $79,900
29. 2016-05-20
    soldstatus $79,900
30. 2016-03-26
    historical
31. 2016-03-15
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,351 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,531 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$180/yr (+$15/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$3,351
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,830
• − Management: −$1,830
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$5,303
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,273
• After-tax cash flow: $35/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster SD
• NCES district ID: 4213140
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $38,500
• Composite: 15.52/100
• National rank: #9301
• State rank: #500 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #498

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 176,170
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 52,217
• Household income: $75,862
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1556.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 12% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 21% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.05%
• Current HPI: 288.9141
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.20%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+194.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $234,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $234,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $242,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-14 Sold (MLS) $203,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-18 Listed $208,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-16 Coming Soon $208,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-12 Sold (MLS) $138,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-25 Listed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2016-05-20 Sold (MLS) $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-03-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-03-15 Listed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,351 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.