359 Ridgewood Cir #357 · Lackawanna, NY 14218

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1940 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three bedroom in the highly sought after Ridgewood Village located just minutes from Buffalo. It has a lot of potential, needs work, selling as is.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Shingle roof; Composite siding; Stone foundation
• Construction: Built previously (existing); Composite siding construction; Shingle roof; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; Road frontage on a city street; Lot dimensions approximately 98 x 136

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $463 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 5.4% in Lackawanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Lackawanna City School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #588 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $100k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.86%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 Tampa Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-9%)	0mo	$285,000	$285	66
331 S Shore Blvd	0.50mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,139 (+4%)	4mo	$185,000	$162	62
41 Elmview Ave	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,206 (+10%)	10mo	$245,000	$203	60
357 S Shore Blvd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,139 (+4%)	9mo	$250,000	$219	58
48 Ward Ct	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,054 (-4%)	9mo	$228,000	$216	55
238 Orchard Pl	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,003 (-9%)	3mo	$220,238	$220	54
33 Julian Ave #33	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,264 (+15%)	2mo	$170,000	$134	52
173 Tampa Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-8%)	9mo	$235,000	$233	51
199 Orchard Pl	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,003 (-9%)	12mo	$199,900	$199	45
92 Saint Jude Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0	972 (-12%)	10mo	$290,000	$298	45
56 Hansen Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	968 (-12%)	10mo	$325,000	$336	43
85 Pacific Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	950 (-14%)	8mo	$206,000	$217	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $13,356
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $49,840
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,219/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $950

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Orchard Pl Lackawanna, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,855	$2.65	1d	12	0.68mi
127 Langner Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	1d	1	0.92mi
40 Vincent Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1075	$875	$0.81	23d	1	0.95mi
158 South Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	1380	$2,500	$1.81	1d	1	1.23mi
46 Kirkwood Dr Unit Lower West Seneca, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$1,350	$1.27	16d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 148-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $99,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,219 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,219 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,219
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,474
• − Management: −$1,474
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $4,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $4,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616440
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,041
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #8708
• State rank: #588 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lackawanna, NY
• City population: 20,661
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,219 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.