215 Saint Mary St · Watertown, NY 13601

$199,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1910 4,000 sqft lot Est $170k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully updated 5-bedroom home has it all and it even features a brand new metal roof! Step inside and discover a spacious, welcoming living area that flows seamlessly into an elegant formal dining room—ideal for entertaining. The bright, fully updated kitchen comes equipped with a gas stove, perfect for preparing your favorite meals. Upstairs, you'll find four generously sized bedrooms. The full bathroom features a jet tub, perfect for unwinding after a long day. But that’s not all—the finished attic space offers even more possibilities. Whether you envision it as a cozy playroom, a fifth bedroom, or a productive home office, this versatile area has endless potential. Both the second and third floors have been updated with brand-new carpet. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of your covered front porch, a peaceful spot for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The back deck is perfect for summer barbecues and outdoor entertaining. Additional outdoor storage is provided by a convenient shed, and the sizable yard which is partially fenced-in offers privacy and space to play. This home offers the perfect balance of comfort, style, and functionality. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to make it yours! Public records do not include the attic square footage. Seller believes the total square footage is closer to 1732.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Storage shed
• Back deck

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FINISHED THIRD-FLOOR ATTIC
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• STORAGE SHED
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity available with circuit breakers; High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story existing residence; Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Stone foundation; Road frontage on a city street; Rectangular residential lot, approximately 40 x 100
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Metal roof; Stone foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck (open); Porch; Partial fencing; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Includes a convertible bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Attic; Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Window treatments; Drapes; Convertible bedroom; Has full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $168k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $168,133 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,016
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 Charles St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,265 (+3%)	6mo	$141,500	$112	79
632 Burlington St	0.07mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,319 (+7%)	1mo	$209,000	$158	71
638 Mundy St	0.11mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,100 (-11%)	3mo	$155,000	$141	68
250 Stuart St	0.15mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,144 (-7%)	8mo	$185,000	$162	68
130 Charles St	0.14mi	4/1.5	1,400 (+14%)	3mo	$225,000	$161	67
114 Gale St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (+6%)	6mo	$80,000	$62	66
138 Saint Mary St	0.10mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,116 (-9%)	9mo	$35,000	$31	65
653 Thompson St	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,164 (-6%)	3mo	$160,700	$138	61
327 W Lynde St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,295 (+5%)	6mo	$232,000	$179	57
807 Bingham Ave	0.66mi	4/1.5	1,152 (-6%)	10mo	$145,000	$126	48
603 Emerson St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-11%)	8mo	$128,000	$116	45
823 Morrison St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (+6%)	10mo	$33,500	$26	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,878
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $33,908
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,187/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,551

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
611 Cooper St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,495	$1.26	44d	1	0.31mi
123 State Pl Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	44d	1	0.68mi
1029 Gill St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	44d	1	0.80mi
911 State St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$995	$0.83	44d	1	0.85mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	44d	1	0.86mi
256 Michigan Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,626	$1.13	44d	9	1.03mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $199,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,275 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,088/yr (+$91/mo · 91.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,187
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$521
• After-tax cash flow: $1,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+342.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $199,000 CNYIS
• 2025-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $167,500 Public Records
• 2025-07-03 Sold (MLS) $167,500 CNYIS
• 2025-04-29 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-04-03 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $179,900 CNYIS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $185,000 CNYIS
• 2025-03-01 Listed $199,900 CNYIS
• 2021-12-20 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2021-12-10 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2021-11-13 Pending — CNYIS
• 2021-10-21 Price Changed $115,000 CNYIS
• 2021-10-01 Listed $125,000 CNYIS
• 2007-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,187 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.