436 S Paseo Madera Unit B · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$115,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 654 sqft · Condo · 73 Days on market

Built 1964 Good condition $378/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This villa is truly move-in ready and won't last! * GVR is available but not required. Newly updated, this 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom home features an open concept layout filled with natural light and beautiful mountain views. The expanded laundry/bonus room includes a full size washer and dryer, offering added convenience. The kitchen offers plenty of storage along with custom butcher block countertops. The spacious bedroom offers a ceiling fan and two closets for storage. Enjoy peace of mind with an HOA that covers roof repair/replacement, HVAC, water heater, landscaping, bi-weekly trash service, water, sewer, pest control, blanket insurance, pool, park, and exterior maintenance. Furniture is

Key facts

• Two closets
• Open concept layout
• Mountain views

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• EXPANDED LAUNDRY ROOM
• TWO CLOSETS
• HOA COVERS ROOF REPAIR
• HOA COVERS LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a community with historic elements and paved streets
• HOA & community: HOA with amenities: pool, park, laundry, maintenance; HOA fee collected monthly; includes air conditioning/heating, blanket insurance, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance of unit, front yard maintenance, pest control, roof repair and replacement, sewer, street maintenance, and water

Exterior

• Parking: HOA-maintained road access
• Security: Wrought iron security door; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water provided by water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Built-up roof; Slump block and stucco (masonry) construction; Masonry stucco exterior
• Exterior features: Paver patio; Stucco and masonry fencing; Decorative gravel landscaping; Elevated, east/west exposure lot; Paved streets and sidewalks (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Unit includes bedroom(s) (one-level layout)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Furnished; Prep sink; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-834/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (8.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $115k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,943 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-19,060
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,045
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,396 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$378
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $104,943

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-30	+0% $-70	+5% $-109	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-180	-5% $-125	+0% $-70	+5% $-14	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-40	base $-70	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	19d	1	0.06mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	19d	1	0.06mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	25d	1	0.07mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	25d	1	0.10mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	25d	1	0.12mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	25d	1	0.14mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	16d	1	0.17mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	4d	1	0.17mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	25d	1	0.17mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	4d	1	0.30mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	3d	1	0.38mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	3d	1	0.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $378 · $4,536/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashlandscapingexterior maint.pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $115,000
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $118,500 Active
17. 2025-07-27
    historical
18. 2025-02-01
    listed $139,950 Active
19. 2024-11-25
    historical
20. 2024-09-14
    listed $140,000 Active
21. 2016-04-01
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed
22. 2000-11-16
    soldstatus $41,900
23. 2000-10-13
    listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,341
• − Management: −$1,341
• − HOA: −$4,536
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$2,547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$611
• After-tax cash flow: $-223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready condo is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good foundation and structure, and the exterior is well-maintained. The interior walls and paint are in good condition, and the kitchen and bath have average conditions. The home has a good roof and flooring, and the windows are in good condition. The HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in good condition. The home has a good curb appeal with a pool area. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appearance and value
• Both Updating countertops — Custom countertops can add value and functionality
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Updating countertops — Custom countertops can add value and functionality ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+156.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $115,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-09 Listed $118,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-27 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-01 Listed $139,950 MLSSAZ
• 2024-11-25 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-09-14 Listed $140,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-04-01 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MLSSAZ
• 2000-11-16 Sold (MLS) $41,900 MLSSAZ
• 2000-10-13 Listed $44,900 MLSSAZ