2530 Tomlinson Rd · Bellview, FL 32526

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1971 0.30 ac lot Est $249k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this one!! Move in ready and beautifully remodeled. .. this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers modern updates with comfortable living in the heart of Pensacola. From the moment you walk in, you’ll love the fresh, updated feel featuring all new luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, stylishly renovated bathrooms, and brand new appliances ready for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious living room serves as the heart of the home with a custom built in entertainment center and cozy fireplace, creating the perfect space to relax or gather with family and friends. The functional layout offers generously sized bedrooms filled with natural light, giving everyone plen

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Additional driveway
• Large corner lot

Tags

• REMODELED
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• COZY FIREPLACE
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• ADDITIONAL DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property appliances included (built-in microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, electric water heater)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Copper electrical wiring
• Home design: Single-story frame home; Slab foundation; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Lot about 0.3 acres
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation; One level
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Shingle roof; Paved public road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor — fully remodeled within the last 1–5 years; Built-in microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10' x 12')
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Both bathrooms fully remodeled within the last 1–5 years
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bookcases; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($138/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.2% in Bellview — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bellview Elementary School (math 28% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 545 students, 75% FRL); Bellview Middle School (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 992 students, 76% FRL); Pine Forest High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,870 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 421 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $249k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,558 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5814 Roble Loma	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,559 (+4%)	7mo	$285,000	$183	80
5842 Roble Loma	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+4%)	11mo	$300,100	$193	78
5844 Providence Loop	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,476 (-2%)	8mo	$237,900	$161	74
5650 Talquin Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-8%)	1mo	$257,000	$186	59
3256 Two Sisters Way	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,514 (+1%)	4mo	$240,000	$159	58
2108 Pullman Cir	0.53mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,500 (0%)	11mo	$200,000	$133	57
2562 Amberjack Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-3%)	11mo	$240,000	$165	55
5897 Somerset Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+10%)	1mo	$272,500	$166	51
4505 Silver Oak St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-10%)	5mo	$240,000	$177	48
6027 Dallas Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-11%)	8mo	$239,000	$179	43
5014 Antoine Pl	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+9%)	6mo	$255,000	$156	41
3236 Two Sisters Way	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,708 (+14%)	2mo	$215,000	$126	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-37,025
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-20,329
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32526

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,876 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $728/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,861

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $82	+0% $11	+5% $-59	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-63	+0% $11	+5% $86	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $75	base $11	+0.5pp $-53	+1.0pp $-119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2121 Pin High Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1918	$2,065	$1.08	25d	1	0.33mi
5877 Tryton Cir Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1419	$1,825	$1.29	25d	1	0.35mi
2300 W Michigan Ave #12 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	25d	1	0.38mi
1860 Broyhill Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$1,600	$1.02	25d	1	0.55mi
2301 W Michigan Ave #21 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.5	1164	$1,325	$1.14	25d	1	0.66mi
3177 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.5	2244	$1,975	$0.88	25d	1	0.68mi
2702 Massachusetts Ave Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1150	$1,745	$1.52	15d	9	0.71mi
3216 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,700	$1.52	25d	1	0.74mi
3296 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.5	1856	$1,795	$0.97	25d	1	0.75mi
2143 Yardley Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,300	$1.33	15d	1	0.75mi
925 Twinbrook Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1105	$1,750	$1.58	25d	1	1.06mi
221 Edison Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,598	$1.07	25d	1	1.13mi
6379 Mers Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1811	$1,900	$1.05	22d	1	1.25mi
902 Lucerne Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	25d	1	1.26mi
6077 Royal Port Ct Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1542	$1,775	$1.15	25d	1	1.32mi
6081 Royal Port Ct Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,850	$1.30	25d	1	1.32mi
6225 Mobile Hwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$2,595	$2.50	15d	15	1.32mi
918 Fremont Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1756	$1,450	$0.83	15d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $249,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $259,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $268,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $268,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $268,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $268,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $268,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $268,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $268,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $268,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $268,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $279,000 Active
18. 2026-04-15
    soldstatus $140,000
19. 1977-01-01
    soldstatus $34,900
20. 1908-01-01
    soldstatus $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,339/yr (+$112/mo · 183.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$728
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,801
• − Management: −$1,801
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,022
• After-tax cash flow: $1,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bellview

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #561
• US rank: #10731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellview, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,680
• Household income: $75,098
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 19% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.68%
• Current HPI: 252.6406
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+613.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $249,000 PARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $259,000 PARMLS
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $268,000 PARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $279,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 1977-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records
• 1908-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $728 · +27.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.