4304 Sabal Ct · Bakersfield, CA 93301

$89,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1980 $72/sqft · 9% above area Est $82k · 9% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is where the heart is for this home. Well maintained, quaint, manufactured home in the highly sought after Royal Palms Mobile Estates Park. Built in 1980 this home has 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, dual-pane windows and textured walls. AC and heating was replaced about 3 years ago. Large open dining and living room area with indoor laundry room. This park features two clubhouses, swimming pool, library, 3-hole golf course and dog park. Space rent is 795.60 fee does not include cost for water, sewer, trash and evening security. Usually runs about $60-70 depending on usage.

Key facts

• Dual-pane windows
• Two clubhouses
• 3-hole golf course

Tags

• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• TWO CLUBHOUSES
• SWIMMING POOL
• LIBRARY
• 3-HOLE GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.1%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,130 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.97%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,871
• List price: $89,500
• Delta: 9.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4300 Prince St	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	7mo	$45,000	$36	91
4324 Sabal Ct	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	1mo	$40,000	$35	86
4209 Jewett Ave	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	8mo	$99,999	$83	84
4204 Prince St	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+10%)	1mo	$80,000	$58	79
4212 King Arthur Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	17mo	$74,000	$55	70
612 44th St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,336 (+7%)	6mo	$95,000	$71	69
701 42nd St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (-9%)	6mo	$80,000	$70	67
4217 Kingman Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+12%)	13mo	$89,000	$64	62
400 E Roberts Ln #46	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	10mo	$130,000	$113	46
400 E Roberts Ln #30	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	10mo	$105,000	$78	46
400 E Roberts Ln #13	0.71mi	2/1.8	1,344 (+8%)	16mo	$60,000	$45	40
400 E Roberts Ln #72	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,432 (+15%)	15mo	$86,000	$60	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $15,996
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $42,777
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93301

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $401/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $684

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $593	-5% $568	+0% $542	+5% $517	+10% $492
Rent	-10% $434	-5% $488	+0% $542	+5% $596	+10% $651
Rate	-1.0pp $587	-0.5pp $565	base $542	+0.5pp $519	+1.0pp $496

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
901 W Columbus St Unit 266 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,325	$1.53	21d	1	0.10mi
901 W Columbus St Unit 236 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,325	$1.53	44d	1	0.14mi
901 W Columbus St Apt 232 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,165	$1.35	21d	1	0.15mi
901 W Columbus St Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	807	$1,425	$1.77	3d	12	0.15mi
1201 40th St Bakersfield, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,075	$1.23	3d	1	0.29mi
3817 K St Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	763	$1,285	$1.68	3d	1	0.38mi
3700 Q St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	3d	1	0.42mi
3701 Q St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	615	$1,200	$1.95	3d	5	0.44mi
4504 Tierra Verde St Unit C Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	925	$1,595	$1.72	3d	1	0.45mi
214 E Belle Ave Unit A Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	875	$1,250	$1.43	3d	1	0.84mi
1000 30th St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	838	$1,395	$1.66	3d	1	0.85mi
2520 Loma Linda Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,075	$1.73	11d	1	0.85mi
3311 Union Ave Unit 20 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	3d	1	0.86mi
715 30th St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	21d	1	0.89mi
617 30th St Apt B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$1,225	$1.33	11d	1	0.91mi
1951 Golden State Ave Bakersfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1017	$1,445	$1.42	3d	2	0.96mi
448 S Oildale Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	3d	1	0.96mi
516 28th St Unit 4 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	3d	1	0.97mi
327 McCord Ave Unit 6 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	3d	1	0.98mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,595	$1.61	15d	1	0.99mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	990	$1,495	$1.51	3d	1	0.99mi
631 28th St Unit 5 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,075	$1.03	3d	1	1.00mi
631 28th St Unit 3 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,075	$1.03	21d	1	1.00mi
222 Moneta Ave Unit 222 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,700	$1.63	3d	1	1.02mi
106 E Warren Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,400	$1.20	11d	1	1.03mi
120 Harding Ave Unit D Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	3d	1	1.04mi
217 Jefferson St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	980	$1,550	$1.58	21d	1	1.08mi
222 Harding Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	3d	1	1.12mi
213 Oildale Dr Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	928	$1,195	$1.29	3d	1	1.17mi
627 Hood Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	3d	1	1.20mi
627 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	967	$1,575	$1.63	44d	1	1.24mi
415 Jeffrey St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	3d	1	1.25mi
706 Huskey Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	832	$1,450	$1.74	44d	1	1.27mi
400 Jefferson St Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	44d	1	1.29mi
521 Walnut Ave Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	1170	$750	$0.64	3d	1	1.32mi
811 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	3d	1	1.39mi
419 Washington Ave Unit 417 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	3d	1	1.45mi
504 Quincy St Unit D Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	725	$1,100	$1.52	11d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,500 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,500 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,500 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,500 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,500 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,500 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,500 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $89,500 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Home is where the heart is for this home. Well maintained, quaint, manufactured home in the highly sought after Royal Palms Mobile Estates Park. Built in 1980 this home has 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, dual-pane windows and textured walls. AC and heating was replaced about 3 years ago. Large open dining and living room area with indoor laundry room. This park features two clubhouses, swimming pool, library, 3-hole golf course and dog park. Space rent is 795.60 fee does not include cost for water, sewer, trash and evening security. Usually runs about $60-70 depending on usage.

16. 2026-04-09
    listed $94,900 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Home is where the heart is for this home. Well maintained, quaint, manufactured home in the highly sought after Royal Palms Mobile Estates Park. Built in 1980 this home has 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, dual-pane windows and textured walls. AC and heating was replaced about 3 years ago. Large open dining and living room area with indoor laundry room. This park features two clubhouses, swimming pool, library, 3-hole golf course and dog park. Space rent is 795.60 fee does not include cost for water, sewer, trash and evening security. Usually runs about $60-70 depending on usage.

17. 2026-03-04
    price $94,900
18. 2025-10-07
    listed $97,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $401 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $680 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$279/yr (+$23/mo · 69.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$401
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $5,345
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,283
• After-tax cash flow: $5,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 13,620
• Household income: $43,561
• Rent vs Own: 63.5% rent · 36.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1296.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 16% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.38%
• Current HPI: 370.1318
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.12%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $89,500 GEMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $94,900 GEMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $94,900 GEMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $97,500 GEMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $401 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.