12243 Trail Hollow Dr · Conroe, TX 77356

$159,500

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,318 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1981 2,366 sqft lot $121/sqft · 40% below area Est $300k · 47% under $188/mo HOA · 11% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful town home with plenty of upgrades. Double windows, french doors, laminate flooring in kitchen and entry. All Walden amenities included in HOA including Marina, Yacht Club, tennis swimming pool, raquet club, hiking and biking trails. Golf is extra.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Open-concept kitchen
• Newer roof

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• NEWER ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Walden Community Improvement association; Annual association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, common areas, recreation facilities, marina, boat ramp, dog park, fitness center, golf course, playground, park, tennis courts, and trails; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Two-story home; Entry level includes first and second floors
• Construction: Built in 1981; Cement siding and wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Tennis courts; Backs to greenbelt/park

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the second floor (16 x 12); Second bedroom on the second floor (14 x 11)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bathroom; Pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Combined living and dining area; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in utility room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($804/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $160k implies a 304% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.80%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,220
• List price: $159,500
• Delta: -46.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11621 Redbird Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,378 (+5%)	15mo	$296,000	$215	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-26,608
• Equity at exit: $23,782

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-37,072
• Equity at exit: $13,791

Cash invested: $44,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,773 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$836
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,914/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$188
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,688

Max offer price $159,500

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,875
• Closing costs: $4,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12255 Trail Hollow Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,950	$1.18	14d	1	0.02mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 317B Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$1,550	$1.72	43d	1	0.12mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 227C Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,700	$1.85	43d	1	0.12mi
12100 Melville Dr Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,750	$1.82	43d	2	0.15mi
11243 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,699	$1.18	5d	1	0.98mi
11231 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,499	$1.01	22d	1	0.99mi
3679 Windswept Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,000	$1.09	18d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $188 · $2,256/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 609-char remark
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $159,500 Active 609-char remark
3. 2026-05-13
   historical
4. 2026-04-09
   listed $164,500 Active
5. 2020-06-04
   soldstatus
6. 2020-06-01
   soldstatus Sold

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Beautiful town home with plenty of upgrades. Double windows, french doors, laminate flooring in kitchen and entry. All Walden amenities included in HOA including Marina, Yacht Club, tennis swimming pool, raquet club, hiking and biking trails. Golf is extra.

7. 2020-05-18
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Beautiful town home with plenty of upgrades. Double windows, french doors, laminate flooring in kitchen and entry. All Walden amenities included in HOA including Marina, Yacht Club, tennis swimming pool, raquet club, hiking and biking trails. Golf is extra.

8. 2020-05-09
   status Option Pending

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Beautiful town home with plenty of upgrades. Double windows, french doors, laminate flooring in kitchen and entry. All Walden amenities included in HOA including Marina, Yacht Club, tennis swimming pool, raquet club, hiking and biking trails. Golf is extra.

9. 2020-05-04
   listed $120,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Beautiful town home with plenty of upgrades. Double windows, french doors, laminate flooring in kitchen and entry. All Walden amenities included in HOA including Marina, Yacht Club, tennis swimming pool, raquet club, hiking and biking trails. Golf is extra.

10. 2005-10-01
    soldstatus
11. 2001-11-30
    soldstatus
12. 1999-08-26
    soldstatus
13. 1999-08-16
    soldstatus
14. 1991-04-22
    soldstatus $39,520
15. 1988-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,914 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,919 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$5/yr ($0/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,934
• − Property taxes: −$2,914
• − Insurance: −$798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,702
• − Management: −$1,702
• − HOA: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$4,640
• Taxable loss: −$1,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$401
• After-tax cash flow: $1,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+303.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $159,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $164,500 HARMLS
• 2020-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-04 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2005-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $39,520 Public Records
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,914 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.