430 N Fredrick St · Houston, MO 65483

$160,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,726 sqft · Other public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1968 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath property located on a desirable corner lot in Houston, Missouri! This home offers plenty of room for a growing family, hosting guests, or creating that perfect home office setup. Step outside and enjoy the fully fenced backyard, ideal for kids, pets, or entertaining. A storage shed provides extra space for tools, lawn equipment, or outdoor gear. With a great layout, comfortable living space, and a convenient location close to town amenities, this property has so much to offer.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Convenient location
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.0% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#824 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Houston R-I (rural): math 24% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #266 of 324 in MO (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Houston Elem. (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #656 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 432 students, 55% FRL); Houston Middle (math 20% / reading 34%, grade F, #306 of 391 statewide, top 80%, 206 students, 55% FRL); Houston High (math 12% / reading 52%, grade F, #356 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 374 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Texas County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Texas County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,366 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.31%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-20,504
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,079
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65483

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $549/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,204

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $132	+0% $86	+5% $41	+10% $-4
Rent	-10% $-17	-5% $34	+0% $86	+5% $138	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $127	base $86	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath property located on a desirable corner lot in Houston, Missouri! This home offers plenty of room for a growing family, hosting guests, or creating that perfect home office setup. Step outside and enjoy the fully fenced backyard, ideal for kids, pets, or entertaining. A storage shed provides extra space for tools, lawn equipment, or outdoor gear. With a great layout, comfortable living space, and a convenient location close to town amenities, this property has so much to offer.

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath property located on a desirable corner lot in Houston, Missouri! This home offers plenty of room for a growing family, hosting guests, or creating that perfect home office setup. Step outside and enjoy the fully fenced backyard, ideal for kids, pets, or entertaining. A storage shed provides extra space for tools, lawn equipment, or outdoor gear. With a great layout, comfortable living space, and a convenient location close to town amenities, this property has so much to offer.

3. 2026-04-04
   price $160,000 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath property located on a desirable corner lot in Houston, Missouri! This home offers plenty of room for a growing family, hosting guests, or creating that perfect home office setup. Step outside and enjoy the fully fenced backyard, ideal for kids, pets, or entertaining. A storage shed provides extra space for tools, lawn equipment, or outdoor gear. With a great layout, comfortable living space, and a convenient location close to town amenities, this property has so much to offer.

4. 2026-04-04
   price $160,000 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath property located on a desirable corner lot in Houston, Missouri! This home offers plenty of room for a growing family, hosting guests, or creating that perfect home office setup. Step outside and enjoy the fully fenced backyard, ideal for kids, pets, or entertaining. A storage shed provides extra space for tools, lawn equipment, or outdoor gear. With a great layout, comfortable living space, and a convenient location close to town amenities, this property has so much to offer.

5. 2026-02-13
   listed $167,000 Active 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath property located on a desirable corner lot in Houston, Missouri! This home offers plenty of room for a growing family, hosting guests, or creating that perfect home office setup. Step outside and enjoy the fully fenced backyard, ideal for kids, pets, or entertaining. A storage shed provides extra space for tools, lawn equipment, or outdoor gear. With a great layout, comfortable living space, and a convenient location close to town amenities, this property has so much to offer.

6. 2026-02-12
   listed $167,000 Active 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath property located on a desirable corner lot in Houston, Missouri! This home offers plenty of room for a growing family, hosting guests, or creating that perfect home office setup. Step outside and enjoy the fully fenced backyard, ideal for kids, pets, or entertaining. A storage shed provides extra space for tools, lawn equipment, or outdoor gear. With a great layout, comfortable living space, and a convenient location close to town amenities, this property has so much to offer.

7. 2023-07-13
   historical
8. 2023-06-23
   price $170,000
9. 2023-05-31
   price $175,000
10. 2023-05-11
    price $179,900
11. 2023-04-26
    price $184,900
12. 2023-04-20
    listed $189,900 Active
13. 2022-08-09
    price $169,900
14. 2022-08-09
    price $169,900
15. 2022-07-15
    listed $174,900 Active
16. 2017-07-06
    soldstatus
17. 2017-03-16
    listed $89,900
18. 2015-09-30
    soldstatus
19. 2014-10-14
    listed $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $549 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,552 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,003/yr (+$84/mo · 182.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$549
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,261
• − Management: −$1,261
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,724
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$414
• After-tax cash flow: $1,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston R-I
• NCES district ID: 2914840
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,169
• Composite: 25.88/100
• National rank: #7344
• State rank: #266 of 324 in MO

Livability — Houston

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #824
• US rank: #24484

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, MO
• Population (ZIP): 4,607

Population outlook (Texas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,648 people
• By 2030: 23,981 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 22,840 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 21,832 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 19,481 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 16,634 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Danish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Texas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.7) · D 13.8% · R 85.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -35.1pp · 2024: -71.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.7 2020: R+68.6 2016: R+65.4 2012: R+44.1 2008: R+35.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.78%
• Current HPI: 224.0504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+113.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $160,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $160,000 SOMO
• 2026-02-13 Listed $167,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $167,000 SOMO
• 2023-07-13 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-06-23 Price Changed $170,000 SOMO
• 2023-05-31 Price Changed $175,000 SOMO
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $179,900 SOMO
• 2023-04-26 Price Changed $184,900 SOMO
• 2023-04-20 Listed $189,900 SOMO
• 2022-08-09 Price Changed $169,900 SOMO
• 2022-08-09 Price Changed $169,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-15 Listed $174,900 SOMO
• 2017-07-06 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2017-03-16 Listed $89,900 SOMO
• 2015-09-30 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2014-10-14 Listed $74,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $549 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.