1010 10th St · Shallowater, TX 79363

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,713 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1960 0.26 ac lot $140/sqft · 37% below area Est $378k · 37% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the heart of Shallowater, this charming 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a rare opportunity to own a piece of small-town tradition in the highly sought-after Shallowater ISD. Located directly across from the elementary school — a true cornerstone of the community — this home is full of character, memories, and potential. The possibilities are endless for someone looking to create a special place to call home. With its unbeatable location, spacious layout, and deep roots in a wonderful neighborhood, this property is perfect for buyers who value community, convenience, and the timeless charm of an established home. Make an appointment with your favorite realtor today!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property has asphalt road frontage on a public maintained city street
• HOA & community: No community features listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport with 4 spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Single Family zoning
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as a single-story home
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard; City lot; Shed(s); Workshop; Storm door(s); Fenced with block fencing

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shallowater ISD (town): math 73% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #18 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shallowater El (330 students, 39% FRL); Shallowater Middle (math 75% / reading 64%, grade A, #63 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 500 students, 37% FRL); Shallowater H S (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 542 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,106 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,992
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -36.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $110,689
• Equity at exit: $215,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $341,192
• Equity at exit: $464,324

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,512/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,978

Max offer price $185,065

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1406 15th St Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,600	$1.03	13d	1	0.53mi
1408 15th St Unit B Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,600	$1.03	13d	1	0.54mi
1403 17th St Unit 1 Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,700	$1.10	13d	1	0.63mi
1405 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,525	$1.17	13d	1	0.64mi
1407 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,500	$1.15	21d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   price $239,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $244,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $249,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $254,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,000 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $254,000 Active 20 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $259,000 Active 694-char remark
19. 1994-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,512 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,374 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,862/yr (+$155/mo · 74.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$2,512
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$8,009
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,922
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shallowater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839870
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,288
• Composite: 59.69/100
• National rank: #903
• State rank: #18 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shallowater

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #5236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shallowater, TX
• City population: 283,030
• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $239,000 LARMLS
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $244,000 LARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $249,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $254,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $259,000 LARMLS
• 1994-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,512 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.