Creekside Manor CM4603D Plan · Tulare, CA 93274

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · Manufactured · 918 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 918 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,478
• Financial info: List price $179,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas; Central forced-air heating and standard electrical for cooling
• Home design: Creekside Manor CM4603D plan; New construction plan
• Construction: Plan-built home
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (plan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan model)

🏗️ New construction. The $179,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $81,290.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $989 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 3.3% in Tulare — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#701 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Tulare Joint Union High (suburban): math 18% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #280 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $562 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 918 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 918 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.74%
• DSCR: 3.61
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,290
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
900 E Rankin Rd Rd SE #72	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	2mo	$129,000	$90	94
900 E Rankin Ave #3	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	6mo	$79,000	$55	90
900 E Rankin Rd #134	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+2%)	11mo	$90,000	$60	88
900 E Rankin Rd #69	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-5%)	6mo	$45,000	$32	81
900 E Rankin Ave #70	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+6%)	21mo	$82,000	$53	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $49,225
• Equity at exit: $12,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $121,556
• Equity at exit: $7,028

Cash invested: $22,761 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93274

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$426
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$102 /mo · $1,219/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $989

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $81,290

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,322
• Closing costs: $2,439
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 918 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 917 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 916 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 915 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 913 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 912 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 910 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 909 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 908 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 907 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 904 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 903 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 902 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 901 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 900 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 899 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,554
• − Property taxes: −$1,219
• − Insurance: −$1,909
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,037
• − Management: −$2,037
• − Depreciation: −$2,365
• Taxable income: $11,338
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,721
• After-tax cash flow: $9,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tulare Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0639930
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,858
• Composite: 29.91/100
• National rank: #6384
• State rank: #280 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tulare

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #21185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tulare, CA
• County: Tulare County · 323,826 people
• City population: 80,026
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 80,026
• Household income: $72,650
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2393.0

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% White 29% Two or more races 24% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -402.03%
• Current HPI: 316.0806
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B