14814 Bigelow St · Pilot Point, TX 76258

$345,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 5,750 sqft lot $168/sqft · 43% below area Est $602k · 43% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level home is host to an inviting open floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ideal for seamless entertaining. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked to the side of the home, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile flex space can be found off the main living area.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 5,750 sq ft lot

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing conditions; Directions available to property in Creekview subdivision
• Financial info: Financing options accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; Annual association fee (paid annually); Association provides full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management services; HOA managed by Essex

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s); Fire alarm
• Utilities: Municipal Utility District water and sewer (MUD); Concrete curbs and sidewalks; Sidewalks
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property (not attached); New construction - incomplete (year built 2026)
• Construction: Brick, frame, rock/stone, and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction (2026)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Natural stone/granite countertops; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in pantry; Plumbed for gas in kitchen; Water line to refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on main level; Office on main level (can be used as flex space)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); ENERGY STAR qualified equipment
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Plumbed connections (washer/dryer connections implied)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $346k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-527 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $245,015 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.52%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $601,751
• List price: $345,999
• Delta: -42.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14550 Flossie St	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,140 (+4%)	2mo	$399,990	$187	69
14549 Flossie St	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,866 (-10%)	1mo	$389,990	$209	64
5863 Anning Way	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,098 (+2%)	12mo	$445,000	$212	64
14426 Mcclint St	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,103 (+2%)	1mo	$398,000	$189	62
14551 Elion Ct	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,192 (+6%)	2mo	$399,940	$182	62
5715 Smiley Rd	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-10%)	2mo	$850,000	$459	62
14498 Lovelace St	0.48mi	4/3.0	1,944 (-6%)	5mo	$359,990	$185	60
5917 Mayer Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (-3%)	6mo	$334,990	$168	59
14441 Mietner St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (-3%)	5mo	$349,990	$176	55
14498 Herschel St	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,240 (+9%)	3mo	$444,950	$199	53
14505 Lovelace St	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,333 (+13%)	1mo	$424,000	$182	51
14438 Mietner St	0.70mi	4/3.0	1,944 (-6%)	7mo	$379,990	$195	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-89,519
• Equity at exit: $51,590

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-120,804
• Equity at exit: $29,916

Cash invested: $96,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76258

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,814
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$432 /mo · $5,190/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,117

Max offer price $269,813

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-287	-5% $-407	+0% $-527	+5% $-646	+10% $-766
Rent	-10% $-720	-5% $-623	+0% $-527	+5% $-430	+10% $-333
Rate	-1.0pp $-352	-0.5pp $-439	base $-527	+0.5pp $-616	+1.0pp $-707

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,500
• Closing costs: $10,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5928 Mustang Creek Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,395	$1.26	14d	1	1.00mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,700	$1.27	14d	1	1.09mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,650	$1.25	6d	1	1.09mi
6124 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2183	$2,595	$1.19	5d	1	1.10mi
6109 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,899	$1.34	3d	1	1.11mi
16309 Garden Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,450	$1.36	45d	1	1.16mi
6246 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2182	$2,695	$1.24	0d	1	1.17mi
14221 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,499	$0.96	20d	1	1.17mi
14220 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,099	$1.27	5d	1	1.18mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,195	$1.22	45d	1	1.19mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,135	$1.19	14d	1	1.19mi
6249 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,495	$1.15	12d	1	1.21mi
6113 Tahoe Winds Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2174	$2,800	$1.29	25d	1	1.22mi
16629 Freshwater Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2211	$2,600	$1.18	26d	1	1.24mi
5901 Maddie Ann Dr Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	2932	$3,895	$1.33	8d	1	1.24mi
14115 Harden St Pilot Point, TX	5.0	3.5	2534	$2,790	$1.10	45d	1	1.27mi
14122 Emeric St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	3.0	2247	$2,500	$1.11	25d	1	1.27mi
16625 Hidden Cove Dr Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1962	$2,495	$1.27	26d	1	1.27mi
14184 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,400	$1.16	0d	1	1.30mi
14114 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,200	$1.47	19d	1	1.30mi
14153 Golden Bridge Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,895	$1.25	18d	1	1.32mi
3304 Lake Palestine Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2179	$2,650	$1.22	14d	1	1.33mi
14174 Inglebert St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	1.35mi
14133 Calderwood St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,280	$1.30	45d	1	1.37mi
14149 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.5	2423	$2,395	$0.99	8d	1	1.38mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,795	$1.18	8d	1	1.39mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,895	$1.25	20d	1	1.39mi
14121 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	45d	1	1.42mi
7108 Calshot Rd Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$1,995	$1.14	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $345,999 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,999 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,999 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,999 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,999 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,999 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,999 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,999 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $345,999 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 391-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    days on marketlisting id $345,999 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $345,999 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $345,999 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,999 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,999 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $345,999 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    This new single-level home is host to an inviting open floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ideal for seamless entertaining. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked to the side of the home, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile flex space can be found off the main living area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,381
• − Property taxes: −$5,190
• − Insurance: −$1,730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$10,065
• Taxable loss: −$12,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,005
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pilot Point

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pilot Point, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,042

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.12%
• Current HPI: 303.4015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $345,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $345,999 Zillow