129 Hillcrest Dr · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2002 0.50 ac lot $204/sqft · 18% above area Est $361k · 18% over $250/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great year-round colonial in Hemlock Farms. This well kept 4 bedroom 3 bath home sits on a flat lot, features hardwood floors, wall to wall carpet, central A/C, 2 car attached garage, formal dinning room, open deck, large grass yard surrounded by mature trees and more. Come see this home to appreciate all it has to offer. , Beds Description: 2+BED 2nd, Beds Description: 1Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 2 Bath Lev 2, Eating Area: Formal DN Room, Eating Area: Modern KT

Key facts

• Gated community
• Large back deck
• Access to lakes

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• LARGE BACK DECK
• ACCESS TO LAKES
• ACCESS TO POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Hemlock Farms subdivision; Community features include gated entry, clubhouse, tennis courts, playground, pool, lake, golf, fitness center, and fishing
• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Annual association fee (listed); One-time association fee (listed); Association amenities include beach access, recreation facilities, tennis courts, security, meeting/party rooms, golf course access, indoor pool, gated entry, fitness center, dog park, clubhouse, beach rights; Association fee reportedly covers security

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway
• Security: 24-hour security; Smoke detectors; Security service; Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service; Cable available; Water connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Back yard; Front yard; Level lot; Concrete road frontage on a private maintained road; Private road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Dishwasher; Water heater
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedrooms included in room count)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Hot water heating; Forced air; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer; Laundry closet on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $415k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $412k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $412,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.17%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,622
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: 17.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Summer Hill Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	2,064 (-1%)	1mo	$330,000	$160	91
807 Lariat Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	2,030 (-2%)	12mo	$355,000	$175	75
806 Warbler Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,996 (-4%)	15mo	$267,900	$134	74
517 Maple Ridge Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	2,016 (-3%)	8mo	$575,000	$285	69
806 Wren Ct	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,130 (+2%)	4mo	$228,000	$107	68
811 Paddock Ct	0.60mi	3/2.5	2,216 (+6%)	4mo	$375,000	$169	56
121 Canterbrook Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,892 (-9%)	1mo	$285,000	$151	55
104 Heron Bay	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,296 (+10%)	5mo	$185,000	$81	52
102 Canterbrook Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,296 (+10%)	15mo	$375,000	$163	51
809 Widgeon Ct	0.69mi	3/3.0	1,911 (-8%)	6mo	$730,000	$382	45
803 Fetlock Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,837 (-12%)	7mo	$290,000	$158	42
802 Paddock Ct	0.69mi	3/2.5	2,348 (+13%)	14mo	$455,000	$194	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $251,576
• Equity at exit: $382,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $725,253
• Equity at exit: $825,682

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,683/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$871
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,750

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Pommel Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1691	$4,400	$2.60	1d	1	0.54mi
402 Canoe Brook Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2055	$3,500	$1.70	1d	1	0.78mi
113 Portage Ln Milford, PA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	1d	1	0.99mi
142 Eisenhower Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2764	$5,000	$1.81	1d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $425,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $439,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $439,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $439,000 Active 941-char remark
16. 2024-02-08
    soldstatus $375,000 Closed 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Great year-round colonial in Hemlock Farms. This well kept 4 bedroom 3 bath home sits on a flat lot, features hardwood floors, wall to wall carpet, central A/C, 2 car attached garage, formal dinning room, open deck, large grass yard surrounded by mature trees and more. Come see this home to appreciate all it has to offer. , Beds Description: 2+BED 2nd, Beds Description: 1Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 2 Bath Lev 2, Eating Area: Formal DN Room, Eating Area: Modern KT

17. 2023-12-21
    status Pending 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Great year-round colonial in Hemlock Farms. This well kept 4 bedroom 3 bath home sits on a flat lot, features hardwood floors, wall to wall carpet, central A/C, 2 car attached garage, formal dinning room, open deck, large grass yard surrounded by mature trees and more. Come see this home to appreciate all it has to offer. , Beds Description: 2+BED 2nd, Beds Description: 1Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 2 Bath Lev 2, Eating Area: Formal DN Room, Eating Area: Modern KT

18. 2023-09-21
    listed $425,000 Active 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Great year-round colonial in Hemlock Farms. This well kept 4 bedroom 3 bath home sits on a flat lot, features hardwood floors, wall to wall carpet, central A/C, 2 car attached garage, formal dinning room, open deck, large grass yard surrounded by mature trees and more. Come see this home to appreciate all it has to offer. , Beds Description: 2+BED 2nd, Beds Description: 1Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 2 Bath Lev 2, Eating Area: Formal DN Room, Eating Area: Modern KT

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,683 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,199 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,516/yr (+$126/mo · 41.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$3,683
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,983
• − Management: −$3,983
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$759
• After-tax cash flow: $4,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $425,000 PWMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $439,000 PWMLS
• 2024-02-08 Sold (MLS) $375,000 PWMLS
• 2023-12-21 Pending — PWMLS
• 2023-09-21 Listed $425,000 PWMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,683 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.