1166 N Business Highway 78 · Blue Ridge, TX 75424

$220,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,013 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1980 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Your Beautifully Renovated Three-Bedroom home with option to purchase adjacent 0.97 empty lot for the ultimate retreat! Step into comfort and style in this recently renovated three-bedroom home, thoughtfully updated to offer modern living in a warm and inviting space. The open layout and luxury vinyl wood flooring (NO CARPET!) create a seamless flow throughout the home, making the space feel both bright and welcoming from the moment you enter. The fully remodeled kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, updated cabinetry, and generous storage—perfect for everyday meals or hosting friends and family. The primary bedroom serves as a peaceful retrea

Key facts

• Renovated home
• Granite countertops
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• FULLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding or subject to lease outstanding; Owner/Agent
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage; Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA loan, and other financing
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (covered) with 1 covered/carport space; Off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Individual water meter; Cable available; Asphalt access
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Not attached to another property; Built in 1980; Preowned
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Landscaped yard; Large backyard with grass; Back yard fencing (fenced)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 11 x 12); Bedroom on level 1 (approx. 11 x 10); Bedroom on level 1 (approx. 12 x 10)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (built-in cabinets, approx. 8 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Decorative lighting; Built-in features; Granite counters; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with full size washer/dryer area; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Blue Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,305 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #154 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 478 students, 51% FRL); Blue Ridge Middle (math 52% / reading 47%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 213 students, 51% FRL); Blue Ridge H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 318 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,502 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $104,160
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $318,907
• Equity at exit: $427,412

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75424

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,465 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,885/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,775

Max offer price $176,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-121	-5% $-183	+0% $-245	+5% $-307	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-361	-5% $-303	+0% $-245	+5% $-187	+10% $-129
Rate	-1.0pp $-134	-0.5pp $-189	base $-245	+0.5pp $-302	+1.0pp $-360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Bowling Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	3.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.72mi
2 Bowling Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.5	1442	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.72mi
313 N Church St Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,475	$1.32	0d	1	0.78mi
303 W Davis St Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	1.0	828	$1,400	$1.69	26d	1	0.81mi
303 W Davis St Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	1.0	828	$1,400	$1.69	0d	1	0.81mi
219 E Pritchard Ln Unit 219 Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,000	$0.95	26d	1	1.23mi
223 E Pritchard #225 Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	45d	1	1.23mi
505 S Texas 78 Business Unit 78 Blue Ridge, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	0d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $220,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,885 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,141/yr (+$178/mo · 113.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,885
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,666
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810590
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,738
• Composite: 43.99/100
• National rank: #2894
• State rank: #154 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blue Ridge

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1305
• US rank: #22618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,908
• Population (ZIP): 3,908

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.07%
• Current HPI: 354.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13650.0% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-01 Rental Removed $1,375 BUILDIUM
• 2026-01-29 Rental Removed $1,375 NTREIS
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $1,375 NTREIS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $1,375 BUILDIUM
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $269,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $1,400 NTREIS
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $1,400 BUILDIUM
• 2025-12-19 Listed for Rent $1,425 NTREIS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $1,425 BUILDIUM
• 2025-12-06 Rental Removed $1,450 NTREIS
• 2025-12-06 Listed for Rent $1,450 NTREIS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $1,450 BUILDIUM
• 2025-11-14 Listed for Rent $1,475 BUILDIUM
• 2025-11-14 Rental Removed $1,475 NTREIS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $1,475 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Listed for Rent $1,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-30 Rental Removed $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2025-10-21 Rental Removed $1,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-21 Listed for Rent $1,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $1,525 BUILDIUM
• 2025-10-09 Rental Removed $1,525 NTREIS
• 2025-10-09 Listed for Rent $1,525 NTREIS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $1,550 BUILDIUM
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $1,575 BUILDIUM
• 2025-08-28 Rental Removed $1,575 NTREIS
• 2025-08-28 Listed for Rent $1,575 NTREIS
• 2025-08-22 Listed for Rent $1,600 BUILDIUM
• 2020-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,885 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.