2985 E Shalmar Rd · Sulphur, OK 73086

$119,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2001

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

1998 Clayton 3 bed 2 bath single wide manufactured home is 16x56 with a big porch very nice treed lot that backs up to lake Arbuckle & acirc; & euro; & trade; s national park and lake. 5 minute walk to a small beach. Close to boat dock and of course Fat bullies is just a short golf cart ride away if you don & acirc; & euro; & trade; t feel looking or wanna watch some live music on the weekends And only 15 minute to l-35, 30 minutes to Ardmore or Pauls Valley and less than a hour to Norman Perfect location on a quiet street Zillows map is not showing correct location Google the address or look at the last few photos

Key facts

• Backs up to lake
• Small beach
• Big porch

Tags

• BIG PORCH
• TREED LOT
• BACKS UP TO LAKE
• SMALL BEACH
• CLOSE TO BOAT DOCK
• SHORT GOLF CART RIDE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($465/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.5% in Sulphur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#60 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Davis (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #112 of 270 in OK (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Murray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Murray County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,502 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.38%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,072
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2855 Arapaho St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (+12%)	18mo	$57,000	$57	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $36,351
• Equity at exit: $74,686

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $105,056
• Equity at exit: $134,796

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73086

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $945 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $342/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $896

Max offer price $119,999

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $73	+0% $39	+5% $5	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-36	-5% $1	+0% $39	+5% $76	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $69	base $39	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,999 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,999 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,999 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,999 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   price $119,999 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,995 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,995 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,995 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,995 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,995 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,995 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,995 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,995 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,995 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,995 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,995 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $99,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $342 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$738/yr (+$61/mo · 215.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$342
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$907
• − Management: −$907
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$391
• After-tax cash flow: $856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davis
• NCES district ID: 4009510
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,908
• Composite: 21.12/100
• National rank: #8436
• State rank: #112 of 270 in OK

Livability — Sulphur

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #9249

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 8,504
• Population (ZIP): 8,504

Population outlook (Murray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,976 people
• By 2030: 15,487 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 16,455 · +9.9%
• By 2050: 17,308 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 19,421 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 20,335 · +35.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 14% Native American 12% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Murray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.3) · D 18.4% · R 79.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.4pp · 2024: -61.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.3 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+55.9 2012: R+40.1 2008: R+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.90%
• Current HPI: 331.8646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $99,995 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $342 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.