802 N 40th Ave #54 · Yakima, WA 98908

$30,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1976

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Carriage Hill Estates 55+ community and to your new home! This 1976 double wide home has been well loved and is waiting for your vision and skill. The home has a brand new roof and a brand new central heat and a/c unit! While it may need some updating and repairs, the prime location and potential make it an excellent opportunity to create your ideal space. The home does need some tlc and is being offered as-is. Don't miss out on the chance to make this home your own in a vibrant and desirable neighborhood!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Hvac system
• Garage

Tags

• RECENTLY REMODELED SHOWER
• NEWER ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage with 1-car capacity
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Site-built construction; Zoned R3 (Multi-Family Residential)
• Construction: Metal siding
• Exterior features: Level lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating with forced air and heat pump
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 50.1% vs local median 3.4% in Yakima — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#98 in WA, #1,912 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Yakima School District (urban): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #238 of 291 in WA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 326 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 468 units permitted in Yakima County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yakima County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 50.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 156.55%
• DSCR: 7.97
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,108
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
606 N 46th Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,168 (+2%)	6mo	$359,000	$307	68
404 N 39th Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-12%)	2mo	$219,500	$218	48
3605 Messina Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,274 (+11%)	22mo	$345,000	$271	46
3310 Castlevale Rd	0.45mi	3/0.5 (+1)	1,265 (+10%)	9mo	$278,000	$220	44
312 N 40th Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,158 (+1%)	21mo	$321,000	$277	43
307 N 35th Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,130 (-2%)	20mo	$340,000	$301	42
3001 Powerhouse Rd	0.74mi	2/1.5	1,057 (-8%)	24mo	$275,000	$260	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.44×
• Total profit: $70,883
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.17×
• Total profit: $177,795
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98908

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 326
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $1,096

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,117	-5% $1,106	+0% $1,096	+5% $1,085	+10% $1,075
Rent	-10% $966	-5% $1,031	+0% $1,096	+5% $1,161	+10% $1,226
Rate	-1.0pp $1,111	-0.5pp $1,103	base $1,096	+0.5pp $1,088	+1.0pp $1,080

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Cascade Loop Yakima, WA	2.0	1.0	1030	$1,800	$1.75	14d	1	0.38mi
3413 Cascade Loop Yakima, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,825	$1.82	14d	1	0.40mi
2605 W Lincoln Ave Yakima, WA	3.0	1.0	990	$1,600	$1.62	44d	1	1.05mi
5101 W Powerhouse Rd Unit 46 Yakima, WA	2.0	2.5	1268	$1,850	$1.46	14d	1	1.12mi
4004 W Walnut St Apt 4 Yakima, WA	2.0	1.0	763	$1,225	$1.61	22d	1	1.22mi
4004 W Walnut St Yakima, WA	2.0	1.0	763	$1,212	$1.59	14d	3	1.22mi
4004 W Walnut St Apt 16 Yakima, WA	2.0	1.0	763	$1,225	$1.61	44d	1	1.22mi
4004 Bell Ave Yakima, WA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,195	$1.45	14d	2	1.28mi
409 S 50th Ave Unit 2 Yakima, WA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,250	$1.59	14d	1	1.39mi
5701 W Chestnut Ave #9 Yakima, WA	2.0	2.0	1380	$1,940	$1.41	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $30,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $30,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $30,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-09
   listed $30,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $13,475
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,234
• After-tax cash flow: $9,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yakima School District
• NCES district ID: 5310110
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,538
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10305
• State rank: #238 of 291 in WA

Livability — Yakima

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #1912

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yakima, WA
• County: Yakima County · 134,789 people
• City population: 115,918
• Metro: Yakima, WA
• Population (ZIP): 38,060
• Household income: $84,197
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1265.0

Population outlook (Yakima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 256,514 people
• By 2030: 259,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 265,677 · +3.6%
• By 2050: 273,061 · +6.5%
• By 2075: 296,991 · +15.8%
• By 2100: 315,291 · +22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yakima

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 41.6% · R 55.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+7.7 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -337.28%
• Current HPI: 258.8688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.45%
• Metro: Yakima, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $30,000 YAMLS
• 2025-03-24 Sold (MLS) $30,000 YAMLS
• 2025-03-08 Pending — YAMLS
• 2025-03-04 Listed $30,000 YAMLS

Property tax history

-18.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $44 · -18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.