34 Highland Lake Rd · Eldred, NY 12732

$47,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 680 sqft · SingleFamily · 324 Days on market

Built 1924

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located in the highly sought-after town of Highland this property presents a rare and exciting investment opportunity. Situated in the heart of the Hudson Valley, the area is known for its scenic beauty, outdoor recreation, and proximity to New York City. The property features a worn-down mobile home and an expansive plot of land, offering endless potential for development or renovation. The true value of this offering lies in its generous land parcel, which provides ample space for a variety of creative projects. Whether you envision a luxury single-family home, a multi-unit residential development, or a private vacation retreat, the possibilities are vast. While in need of significant upd

Key facts

• Generous land parcel
• Built 1924
• Listed 324 days

Tags

• EXPANSIVE PLOT OF LAND
• GENEROUS LAND PARCEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($951 rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 2.2% in Eldred — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 242 students, 38% FRL); Eldred Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 230 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($328 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $41,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.16%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $14,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Highland Lake Rd	0.05mi	2/1.0	680 (0%)	2mo	$15,000	$22	96

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $39,699
• Equity at exit: $28,833

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.22×
• Total profit: $95,984
• Equity at exit: $51,422

Cash invested: $13,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12732

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$249
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$59 /mo · $712/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $416

Max offer price $47,500

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $456	-5% $439	+0% $423	+5% $407	+10% $390
Rent	-10% $348	-5% $385	+0% $423	+5% $460	+10% $498
Rate	-1.0pp $447	-0.5pp $435	base $423	+0.5pp $411	+1.0pp $398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,875
• Closing costs: $1,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-19
   status Active
3. 2025-11-14
   historical
4. 2025-05-13
   listed $47,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,661
• − Property taxes: −$712
• − Insurance: −$238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$913
• − Management: −$913
• − Depreciation: −$1,382
• Taxable income: $4,592
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,102
• After-tax cash flow: $3,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eldred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eldred, NY
• Population (ZIP): 810

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · German/W. Germanic 18% Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.66%
• Current HPI: 424.9744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-13 Listed $47,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid