218-52 138th Rd · New York, NY 11413

$899,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1965 4,200 sqft lot Est $1100k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Spacious legal 2-family home situated on a desirable corner lot on a quiet dead-end street. This property features a private, fully fenced backyard along with a separate side yard, offering excellent outdoor space and added privacy. The first-floor unit offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a living room, an eat-in kitchen, and an extra-large family room with two separate entrances for added convenience and flexibility. The second-floor unit features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, a living room, and a dining room. Additional highlights include two gas meters, a new roof, new boiler, and new water heater. Property is tenant-occupied—drive-by only, no interior access. Tenants are currently

Key facts

• Legal 2-family home
• Separate side yard
• Corner lot

Tags

• LEGAL 2-FAMILY HOME
• CORNER LOT
• QUIET DEAD-END STREET
• PRIVATE FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• SEPARATE SIDE YARD
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Trash collection (public)
• Home design: Duplex
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two 3-bedroom units
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (natural gas); Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $899k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-102/yr) — negative. Per door: $-4/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $897k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $727k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $727k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 227 Louis Armstrong (math 52% / reading 69%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,528 students, 68% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($845k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $450k; list at $899k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $726,800 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,100,352
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
179-12 145 Ave	0.38mi	6/3.0	2,080 (-2%)	2mo	$1,120,000	$538	78
17808 137th Ave	0.36mi	6/5.0	2,124 (+1%)	2mo	$970,000	$457	73
14027 Coombs St	0.21mi	7/3.0 (+1)	1,932 (-8%)	2mo	$999,000	$517	69
13526 219th St	0.29mi	6/—	2,340 (+11%)	2mo	$772,500	$330	67
14411 223rd St	0.59mi	6/5.0	2,271 (+8%)	0mo	$1,295,000	$570	52
22820 Edgewood Ave	0.64mi	6/5.0	2,208 (+4%)	7mo	$1,150,000	$521	49
13012 178th St	0.68mi	6/4.0	2,352 (+11%)	6mo	$1,250,000	$531	40
181-36 144th Ave	0.58mi	6/2.0	2,328 (+10%)	22mo	$842,650	$362	34
130-16 178th St	0.68mi	6/5.0	2,400 (+14%)	23mo	$1,330,000	$554	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-146,394
• Equity at exit: $134,044

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-128,886
• Equity at exit: $77,729

Cash invested: $251,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11413

• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 20.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,268 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax from tax record: −$661 /mo · $7,935/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,526
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,279

Max offer price $897,494

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $500	-5% $246	+0% $-9	+5% $-263	+10% $-517
Rent	-10% $-583	-5% $-296	+0% $-9	+5% $279	+10% $566
Rate	-1.0pp $444	-0.5pp $220	base $-9	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-478

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$7,268
Total (2 units)			$7,268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $224,750
• Closing costs: $26,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $899,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $899,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $899,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $899,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $899,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $899,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $899,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $899,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $899,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-03-30
    listed $899,000 Active
11. 2024-05-03
    price $880,000
12. 2024-03-18
    listed $925,000 Active
13. 2024-02-01
    historical $2,800
14. 2024-01-08
    listed $2,800
15. 2014-01-31
    historical
16. 2012-11-20
    listed $350,000
17. 2008-11-26
    soldstatus $450,000
18. 1996-04-01
    soldstatus $179,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,935 · $661/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,564 · $964/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,629/yr (+$302/mo · 45.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $87,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,358
• − Property taxes: −$7,935
• − Insurance: −$4,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,977
• − Management: −$6,977
• − Depreciation: −$26,153
• Taxable loss: −$15,679
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,763
• After-tax cash flow: $3,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• City population: 7,731,280
• Population (ZIP): 45,072

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% White 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Mexico
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -390.89%
• Current HPI: 311.5327
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+402.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $880,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-18 Listed $925,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-01 Rental Removed $2,800 ONEKEY
• 2024-01-08 Listed for Rent $2,800 ONEKEY
• 2014-01-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-20 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,935 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.