9801 Lorna Ln · Saint Louis, MO 63136

$44,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1950 Fair condition 10,001 sqft lot $44/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom providing seamless single-level living across a functional 1,032-square-foot layout. This home is being sold-as is.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 99 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $688 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.7% vs local median 4.8% in Saint Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Koch Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 303 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 583 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 89d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($310 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $45k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,859 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.71%
• DSCR: 3.92
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,109
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -58.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9819 Vickie Pl	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,032 (0%)	2mo	$87,000	$84	95
9825 Dennis Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,032 (0%)	1mo	$125,000	$121	89
9813 Dennis Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	936 (-9%)	2mo	$85,000	$91	77
9925 Glen Owen Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5	996 (-4%)	2mo	$84,900	$85	77
9738 Scottdale Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	912 (-12%)	2mo	$61,500	$67	64
2629 Daman Ct	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-2%)	1mo	$65,000	$64	62
63 S Dellwood Ave	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	988 (-4%)	1mo	$64,900	$66	60
9855 Green Valley Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+7%)	2mo	$95,000	$86	60
1377 Heydt Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (-4%)	0mo	$115,000	$116	58
33 S Dellwood Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+14%)	2mo	$104,900	$89	51
1688 Maldon Ln	0.69mi	3/1.0	912 (-12%)	2mo	$109,900	$121	47
315 S Dellwood Dr	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-13%)	2mo	$62,700	$70	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $53,798
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.50×
• Total profit: $131,975
• Equity at exit: $35,905

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 78 active · 66 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.8 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $85,000 ($94/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 583
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,291 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $927/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $419

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $714	-5% $701	+0% $688	+5% $676	+10% $663
Rent	-10% $586	-5% $637	+0% $688	+5% $739	+10% $790
Rate	-1.0pp $711	-0.5pp $700	base $688	+0.5pp $677	+1.0pp $665

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1658 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	40d	1	0.06mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	139d	1	0.08mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	139d	1	0.11mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	139d	1	0.14mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	139d	1	0.15mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	108d	1	0.17mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1251	$1,200	$0.96	94d	1	0.17mi
9859 Vickie Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,075	$1.36	10d	1	0.17mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	139d	1	0.17mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	119d	1	0.18mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	139d	1	0.20mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,223	$1.16	87d	1	0.26mi
10030 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$1,195	$1.28	7d	1	0.39mi
10030 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$1,195	$1.28	6d	1	0.39mi
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,050	$1.20	139d	1	0.42mi
9812 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,395	$0.93	42d	1	0.50mi
9812 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,395	$0.93	88d	1	0.50mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	139d	1	0.50mi
2974 Coppercreek Rd St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	705	$950	$1.35	7d	4	0.50mi
9547 Glen Owen Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	857	$1,100	$1.28	10d	1	0.50mi
3047 Canfield Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,225	$1.28	10d	1	0.52mi
9835 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1300	$1,500	$1.15	63d	1	0.52mi
9835 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1300	$1,500	$1.15	42d	1	0.52mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	103d	1	0.52mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	94d	1	0.52mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	139d	1	0.52mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	119d	1	0.54mi
10024 Mayfair Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	846	$1,000	$1.18	6d	1	0.55mi
330 N Floridale Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1061	$1,575	$1.48	5d	1	0.57mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	110d	1	0.58mi
9219 Ellison Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,295	$1.38	86d	1	0.66mi
9219 Ellison Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,295	$1.38	88d	1	0.66mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	119d	1	0.74mi
1209 Chambers Rd Unit 1209-C Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	824	$795	$0.96	10d	1	0.74mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	119d	1	0.74mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	77d	1	0.75mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	75d	1	0.76mi
1113 Highmont Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,395	$1.45	40d	1	0.76mi
59 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$995	$1.18	10d	1	0.77mi
38 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,395	$1.45	40d	1	0.78mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service (other)
• Home design: Single-family houseOne story
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl sidingComposition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porchBack yardPaved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes free-standing range and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Other heating systemCentral air
• Interior features: Central air conditioningFree-standing rangeRefrigerator

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $44,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $44,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $44,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $44,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $44,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $44,900 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $44,900 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $44,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $44,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $44,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $44,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $44,900 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $44,900 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $44,900 Active 79 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 76 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 75 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $49,900 Active 74 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $49,900 Active 73 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $49,900 Active 72 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $49,900 Active 70 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $49,900 Active 69 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $49,900 Active 68 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $49,900 Active 67 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $49,900 Active 66 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $49,900 Active 65 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $49,900 Active 64 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $49,900 Active 63 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $49,900 Active 62 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $49,900 Active 61 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $49,900 Active 60 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $49,900 Active 59 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $49,900 Active 58 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $49,900 Active 57 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $49,900 Active 56 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $49,900 Active 55 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $49,900 Active 54 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 53 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 52 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $49,900 Active 51 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 50 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 49 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 48 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 45 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 44 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 43 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $49,900 Active 42 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $49,900 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$927
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $8,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,929
• After-tax cash flow: $6,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $25,800–$46,440 screening

This single-family home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, siding, and front door. Landscaping and painting would also greatly improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage visible in satellite image
• Major siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt
• Major front door — Worn and in need of repair

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping would enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both roof repair — A new roof would significantly increase the home's value and reduce maintenance costs ↑
• Both front door repair — A new or repaired front door would improve the home's curb appeal and security ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 6/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Koch Elem. F MO #1,099/1,115 Nat'l #41,309/41,679 High Riverview Gardens Sr. High F MO #501/521 Nat'l #15,975/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Saint Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 1,025,227 people
• City population: 254,015
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service (other)
• Home design: Single-family houseOne story
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl sidingComposition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porchBack yardPaved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes free-standing range and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Other heating systemCentral air
• Interior features: Central air conditioningFree-standing rangeRefrigerator

Price history

+1008.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $49,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $17,781 Public Records
• 2014-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $8,750 Public Records
• 2012-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $4,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $927 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.