3815 Draper Pl · Lawrence Park, PA 16511

$87,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1930 2,108 sqft lot Est $159k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick row home offering 4 bedrooms and 1 full bath in a convenient location near Iroquois Schools. This property features an enclosed front porch filled with natural light, spacious living areas, and a fenced backyard perfect for gardening, pets, or outdoor entertaining. The classic brick exterior and mature shade trees provide timeless curb appeal. With a few updates, this home presents an excellent opportunity for affordable housing for buyers or investors looking to build equity and make it their own. Property is being sold AS-IS, however there is a one year HSA home warranty that comes with the home. Don’t miss the chance to bring your vision to this home that is full of potential!

Key facts

• Mature shade trees
• Fenced backyard
• Enclosed front porch

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• CLASSIC BRICK EXTERIOR
• MATURE SHADE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual property tax listed (financial details provided separately)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Home warranty included; Built area 988 (listed)
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 10 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Gas oven, gas range, and refrigerator included; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#85 in PA, #632 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+.
• Iroquois SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #236 of 539 in PA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $88k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.30%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,068
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3721 Emmet Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0	986 (-0%)	10mo	$212,000	$215	82
3622 Main St	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,030 (+4%)	6mo	$131,000	$127	77
735 Napier Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+10%)	10mo	$90,000	$82	67
1203 Smithson Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0	906 (-8%)	12mo	$146,000	$161	59
719 Smithson Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,087 (+10%)	12mo	$83,000	$76	58
4434 Emmett Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+2%)	8mo	$195,000	$193	55
640 Crotty Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,094 (+11%)	9mo	$203,000	$186	55
4031 Bell St	0.39mi	2/1.0	864 (-13%)	8mo	$94,000	$109	54
1837 Kay Gie Way	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (-6%)	5mo	$10,200	$11	53
415 Putnam Dr	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+5%)	2mo	$192,500	$185	50
843 Burkhart Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,060 (+7%)	14mo	$225,000	$212	49
1668 Center St	0.61mi	2/1.0	864 (-13%)	10mo	$76,000	$88	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-4,614
• Equity at exit: $13,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $8,670
• Equity at exit: $7,609

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16511

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,869/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $933

Max offer price $87,999

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1205 Priestley Ave Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	43d	1	0.28mi
4400 E Lake Rd Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,702	$2.06	43d	9	0.80mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,999 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $87,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,869 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,869 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$2,869
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable income: $521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$125
• After-tax cash flow: $1,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Iroquois SD
• NCES district ID: 4212210
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $50,338
• Composite: 40.27/100
• National rank: #3766
• State rank: #236 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lawrence Park

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #632

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawrence Park, PA
• Population (ZIP): 11,709

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.06%
• Current HPI: 256.8088
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+158.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $87,999 GEBOR
• 2026-06-16 Listed $87,999 GEBOR
• 1999-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 1994-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,869 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.