Wyeth Plan · Deerwood, TX 77306

$180,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hello and welcome to the Wyeth floorplan located in Baron Village community! This is a single-story house that spans 1,023 square feet and features three bedrooms and two bathrooms. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by the brightly lit foyer with vinyl floors. One part of the foyer leads to the primary bedroom while the other side leads to the living space of the home. The primary bedroom is complete with soft carpet flooring and two bright windows facing the front of the home, allowing for the space to be flooded with natural light. The primary bedroom opens to the primary bathroom, which is finished with vinyl flooring, a standing shower, and an entryway to the L-shaped closet. Returning to the foyer and venturing into the family room, dining room, and kitchen, you will find this area of the home to have an open concept living and dining space. The layout of this section within the home allows the house to have optimal space for entertaining guests or relaxing during a leisurely weekend. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, extra countertop space, a tall pantry with space for storage, and a kitchen island. The functionality of the kitchen and the open space between the family and dining room gives the home an inviting and comforting air in complement to its bright windows and beautiful vinyl flooring. The secondary bathroom, the utility room, and the two secondary bedrooms can be reached through the dining room. The secondary bathroom sits op

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Wyeth floorplan
• Kitchen island

Tags

• WYETH FLOORPLAN
• BARON VILLAGE COMMUNITY
• BRIGHTLY LIT FOYER
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $180,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $201,655.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $181k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($243/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $164,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,655
• List price: $180,990
• Delta: -10.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,359
• Equity at exit: $30,067

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,535
• Equity at exit: $17,435

Cash invested: $56,464 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,790 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,058
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$252 /mo · $3,025/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,764

Max offer price $201,655

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,414
• Closing costs: $6,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10050 Cerritos Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,499	$1.07	24d	1	0.81mi
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	44d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,990 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,990 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,990 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,990 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,990 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,990 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,990 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,990 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,990 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,990 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,990 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,990 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,990 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,990 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-02-18
    listed $180,990 Active 1494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1494 chars)

    Hello and welcome to the Wyeth floorplan located in Baron Village community! This is a single-story house that spans 1,023 square feet and features three bedrooms and two bathrooms. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by the brightly lit foyer with vinyl floors. One part of the foyer leads to the primary bedroom while the other side leads to the living space of the home. The primary bedroom is complete with soft carpet flooring and two bright windows facing the front of the home, allowing for the space to be flooded with natural light. The primary bedroom opens to the primary bathroom, which is finished with vinyl flooring, a standing shower, and an entryway to the L-shaped closet. Returning to the foyer and venturing into the family room, dining room, and kitchen, you will find this area of the home to have an open concept living and dining space. The layout of this section within the home allows the house to have optimal space for entertaining guests or relaxing during a leisurely weekend. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, extra countertop space, a tall pantry with space for storage, and a kitchen island. The functionality of the kitchen and the open space between the family and dining room gives the home an inviting and comforting air in complement to its bright windows and beautiful vinyl flooring. The secondary bathroom, the utility room, and the two secondary bedrooms can be reached through the dining room. The secondary bathroom sits op

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,296
• − Property taxes: −$3,025
• − Insurance: −$1,008
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,718
• − Management: −$1,718
• − Depreciation: −$5,866
• Taxable loss: −$3,155
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$757
• After-tax cash flow: $1,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in Baron Village is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is ready for minor cosmetic updates to increase its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the living area — Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can increase the home's appeal and marketability.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the living area — Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can increase the home's appeal and marketability. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $180,990 Zillow