3717 Dawson Ln · Houston, TX 77051

$239,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1955 8,125 sqft lot $346/sqft · 49% below area Est $466k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 free standing units right at Scott and Dawson St. Great investment property with tenants.

Key facts

• 8,125 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 81 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-820 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $94k (60.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (57.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (60.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,138 (60.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.70%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 19.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $465,801
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -48.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9605 Chesterfield Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	792 (+15%)	4mo	$50,000	$63	54
4411 Maggie St	0.73mi	2/1.0	660 (-4%)	23mo	$125,000	$189	40
4338 Clover St	0.56mi	2/1.0	792 (+15%)	19mo	$93,000	$117	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $79,759
• Equity at exit: $215,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $279,924
• Equity at exit: $464,324

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 19.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,009 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,168/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $-820

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,047

Max offer price $94,138

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-685	-5% $-752	+0% $-820	+5% $-888	+10% $-955
Rent	-10% $-900	-5% $-860	+0% $-820	+5% $-780	+10% $-740
Rate	-1.0pp $-700	-0.5pp $-759	base $-820	+0.5pp $-882	+1.0pp $-945

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4112 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	711	$700	$0.98	11d	1	0.14mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	680	$800	$1.18	44d	1	0.18mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	19d	1	0.43mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	0d	2	0.45mi
4207 Phlox St Unit 1 BEDROOM 4 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$660	$1.02	44d	1	0.45mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$862	$0.95	44d	1	1.04mi
4923 Paula St Apt 2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	3d	1	1.18mi
5010 Carmen St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	44d	1	1.28mi
5038 Carmen St Apt 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	3d	1	1.33mi
5042 Mallow St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$995	$1.48	6d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    price $239,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $249,000 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    3 free standing units right at Scott and Dawson St. Great investment property with tenants.

15. 2026-04-17
    price $270,000 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    3 free standing units right at Scott and Dawson St. Great investment property with tenants.

16. 2026-03-31
    listed $290,000 Active 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    3 free standing units right at Scott and Dawson St. Great investment property with tenants.

17. 2005-10-06
    historical
18. 2005-09-23
    listed $93,500
19. 1990-12-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,168 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,374 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,206/yr (+$100/mo · 38.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,168
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$968
• − Management: −$968
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$14,535
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,489
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+166.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2005-10-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-09-23 Listed $93,500 HARMLS
• 1990-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,168 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.