2500 N Highway 59 #250 · Merced, CA 95348

$89,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $60k · 47% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a project with loads of potential? With a bit of TLC this could be a GEM!! Double wide with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, living room, dining area and home office or den area. Split floor plan with primary bedroom on one end and remaining bedrooms at the opposite end. All this plus a community pool and club house. Come take a look and make it yours.

Key facts

• Updated finishes
• Access to clubhouse
• Access to pool

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• UPDATED FINISHES
• FUNCTIONAL LIVING SPACES
• WELL MAINTAINED EXTERIOR
• ACCESS TO CLUBHOUSE
• ACCESS TO POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed; Park name: Riviera Holiday Estates
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $610
• HOA & community: Senior community; Suburban neighborhood; Located in Riviera Holiday Estates (land lease community)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer available
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (Devonshire model, 24' x 60'); Updated/remodeled condition; Mobile home remains; Access via city streets
• Construction: Vinyl construction
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Community pool; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Gas cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Entry level: 1
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with bathtub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Granite counters; Double-pane windows; Front door entry
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 3.4% in Merced — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#153 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $89k implies a 187% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.77%
• DSCR: 2.90
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,480
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2500 N Highway 59 #70	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$61,000	$42	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $28,889
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $66,842
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95348

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $933

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2908 Willowbrook Dr Unit 2962-28 Merced, CA	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,775	$1.63	20d	1	0.30mi
1935 V St Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,800	$1.41	20d	1	0.31mi
1836 Cheyenne Dr Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1122	$1,929	$1.72	13d	1	0.58mi
1661 Juneau Ct Merced, CA	4.0	2.0	1204	$2,400	$1.99	13d	1	0.75mi
1422 Lansing St Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,900	$1.60	13d	1	0.78mi
1331 Frankfort Ct Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,600	$1.20	13d	1	0.80mi
1859 Heritage Dr Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,700	$1.66	13d	1	0.82mi
937 W 20th St Unit 937-939 Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,725	$1.19	13d	1	0.82mi
3219 Denver Ave Unit 3221 Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	13d	1	0.84mi
929 W 22nd St Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	936	$1,595	$1.70	13d	1	0.84mi
2029 O St Merced, CA	3.0	1.5	1450	$1,795	$1.24	13d	1	0.94mi
820 W 23rd St Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,750	$1.73	13d	1	0.95mi
2415 O St Unit 2419 Merced, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	13d	1	1.00mi
3521 San Francisco St Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1830	$2,100	$1.15	20d	1	1.27mi
925 Loughborough Dr Merced, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$1,350	$1.75	13d	3	1.32mi
2929 M St Merced, CA	2.0	2.0	1397	$1,888	$1.35	13d	1	1.33mi
777 Loughborough Dr Merced, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	810	$1,139	$1.41	13d	2	1.39mi
1922 Martin Luther King Jr Way Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,375	$1.53	13d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $89,000 Active
17. 2022-03-07
    soldstatus $31,000 Closed Sale 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Looking for a project with loads of potential? With a bit of TLC this could be a GEM!! Double wide with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, living room, dining area and home office or den area. Split floor plan with primary bedroom on one end and remaining bedrooms at the opposite end. All this plus a community pool and club house. Come take a look and make it yours.

18. 2022-02-09
    status Pending Sale 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Looking for a project with loads of potential? With a bit of TLC this could be a GEM!! Double wide with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, living room, dining area and home office or den area. Split floor plan with primary bedroom on one end and remaining bedrooms at the opposite end. All this plus a community pool and club house. Come take a look and make it yours.

19. 2022-02-04
    listed $35,000 Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Looking for a project with loads of potential? With a bit of TLC this could be a GEM!! Double wide with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, living room, dining area and home office or den area. Split floor plan with primary bedroom on one end and remaining bedrooms at the opposite end. All this plus a community pool and club house. Come take a look and make it yours.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$1,912
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $8,359
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,006
• After-tax cash flow: $7,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Merced

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #5111

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merced, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 112,228
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,540
• Household income: $64,944
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1408.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 23% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Asian/Pacific 8% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.74%
• Current HPI: 247.7309
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+154.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $89,000 CRMLS
• 2022-03-07 Sold (MLS) $31,000 CRMLS
• 2022-02-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-02-04 Listed $35,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2020): $164 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.