9166 Campbell Way · San Antonio, TX 78211

$222,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · Other · 94 Days on market

Built 2025 4,791 sqft lot $25/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

The Tilley - This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Versatile loft area

Tags

• FIRST-LEVEL OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-427/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• South San Antonio ISD (urban): math 13% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #804 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Palo Alto El (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 429 students, 95% FRL); South San Antonio H S (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 1,786 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 42% district-wide (52 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $541 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $166,587 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-13,548
• Equity at exit: $59,789

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $9,003
• Equity at exit: $68,020

Cash invested: $62,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78211

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,666 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $772/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,711

Max offer price $216,708

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $28	+0% $-36	+5% $-99	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-101	+0% $-36	+5% $30	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $21	base $-36	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,750
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9122 Campbell Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,495	$1.10	4d	1	0.11mi
4039 Imogene Ivy San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	25d	1	0.19mi
4111 Imogene Ivy San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,700	$1.33	5d	1	0.21mi
3911 Bates Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	25d	1	0.37mi
3910 Poteet Pl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,525	$0.81	45d	1	0.38mi
3903 Kurz Plz S San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$2,000	$1.23	0d	1	0.45mi
3810 Kurz Plz S San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$550	$0.43	25d	1	0.46mi
4007 Somers Crst San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,525	$1.23	6d	1	0.47mi
9419 Graze Br San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,550	$1.25	19d	1	0.49mi
9419 Trap Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2126	$1,750	$0.82	6d	1	0.54mi
9407 Somers Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,525	$1.16	25d	1	0.59mi
9427 Somers Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1950	$1,650	$0.85	45d	1	0.60mi
9306 Somers Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,600	$1.13	25d	1	0.60mi
9334 Somers Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,515	$1.19	6d	1	0.61mi
9402 Somers Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,600	$1.05	12d	1	0.61mi
9422 Somers Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,575	$1.11	45d	1	0.62mi
3811 Somers Crst San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,650	$1.08	45d	1	0.63mi
9435 Dogwood Hl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,600	$1.05	45d	1	0.65mi
3723 Somers Crst San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,650	$1.08	45d	1	0.69mi
3727 Aragon Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,400	$1.32	45d	1	0.84mi
3439 Twining Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1124	$1,500	$1.33	19d	1	1.11mi
3411 Avoca Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,460	$1.02	19d	1	1.23mi
3411 Avoca Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,460	$1.02	6d	1	1.23mi
3331 Rosita Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1848	$1,800	$0.97	45d	1	1.33mi
3434 Hacienda Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2141	$2,000	$0.93	23d	1	1.36mi
3434 Hacienda Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2141	$1,900	$0.89	18d	1	1.36mi
8722 Tesoro Hls San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.5	1170	$1,475	$1.26	12d	1	1.42mi
8739 Tesoro Hls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,595	$0.90	6d	1	1.44mi
8522 Tesoro Hls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1539	$1,540	$1.00	46d	1	1.45mi
8619 Tesoro Hls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1539	$1,540	$1.00	25d	1	1.46mi
10119 Jardin Verde San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1944	$1,750	$0.90	45d	1	1.47mi
8619 Standing Rock St San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1176	$1,420	$1.21	6d	1	1.48mi
8311 Big Creek Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,610	$0.91	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $222,999
3. 2026-03-19
   price $247,999
4. 2026-03-07
   price $245,999
5. 2026-01-19
   listed $243,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $772 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,081 · $340/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,309/yr (+$276/mo · 428.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$772
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,599
• − Management: −$1,599
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable loss: −$4,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,050
• After-tax cash flow: $622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South San Antonio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840680
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $35,460
• Composite: 13.6/100
• National rank: #9511
• State rank: #804 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,857
• Household income: $55,436
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 30% White 5% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 65%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Current HPI: 241.1709
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $222,999 LERA
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $247,999 LERA
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $245,999 LERA
• 2026-01-19 Listed $243,999 LERA