407 Y50 · Fall River, KS 67047

$105,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 775 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1955 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Covered patios
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• CABIN STYLE LAKE HOUSE
• COVERED DECK
• COVERED PATIOS
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• GRANITE
• NEW CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association trash service included

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Propane service; Rural water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family onsite built home; Entry level: One level
• Construction: Metal roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: One-story; Patio; Covered patio; Deck; Storm windows; Fencing (other)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning (electric); Forced air heating; Propane (rented)
• Interior features: Microwave; Refrigerator; No basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups / no laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-865/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $83k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#517 in KS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• West Elk (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #79 of 280 in KS (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Greenwood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Greenwood County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $105k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,724 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $26,522
• Equity at exit: $66,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $81,428
• Equity at exit: $121,946

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67047

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $827 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $94,565

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-36	+0% $-72	+5% $-108	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-105	+0% $-72	+5% $-39	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-19	-0.5pp $-45	base $-72	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $105,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-18
   price $105,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $115,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $115,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 96 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 95 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 94 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 93 DOM
20. 2026-05-20
    price $115,000
21. 2026-02-26
    listed $125,000 Active
22. 2026-01-01
    historical
23. 2025-10-11
    listed $135,000 Active
24. 2002-05-01
    soldstatus $26,500
25. 1992-06-01
    soldstatus $4,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$794
• − Management: −$794
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$2,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$647
• After-tax cash flow: $-218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Elk
• NCES district ID: 2007500
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,442
• Composite: 35.63/100
• National rank: #9704
• State rank: #79 of 280 in KS

Livability — Fall River

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #517
• US rank: #21586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 513

Population outlook (Greenwood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,505 people
• By 2030: 5,103 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 4,287 · -22.1%
• By 2050: 3,576 · -35.0%
• By 2075: 2,370 · -56.9%
• By 2100: 1,459 · -73.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greenwood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 18.8% · R 79.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.2pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+60.8 2016: R+59.1 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 159.4973
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2638.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $115,000 SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $125,000 SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-11 Listed $135,000 SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records
• 1992-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $4,200 Public Records