9810 Cedar Branch Dr · Baytown, TX 77521

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1980 5,427 sqft lot $101/sqft · at area comps Est $83k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,427 sq ft lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: HOA details not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Living area: 840; Built in 1980
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Metal roof; Foundation details not specified
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not specified
• Bedrooms: Number of bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clark El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 683 students, 63% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 627 active listings in the ZIP; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.19%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,152
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 2.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9924 Cedar Branch Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	868 (+3%)	8mo	$85,000	$98	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $2,564
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $18,998
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 627
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,046 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $766/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $690

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $305	+0% $281	+5% $257	+10% $233
Rent	-10% $199	-5% $240	+0% $281	+5% $323	+10% $364
Rate	-1.0pp $324	-0.5pp $303	base $281	+0.5pp $259	+1.0pp $237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $85,000 Active
16. 2026-03-31
    historical
17. 2026-03-26
    price $85,000
18. 2026-03-02
    status Active
19. 2026-02-28
    historical
20. 2026-02-12
    price $100,000
21. 2025-10-02
    price $85,000
22. 2025-09-12
    listed $90,000 Active
23. 2020-08-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $766 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$790/yr (+$66/mo · 103.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$766
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,004
• − Management: −$1,004
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,120
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$509
• After-tax cash flow: $2,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2020-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $766 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.