124 Rising Cedar Ln · Hockley, TX 77447

$224,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,600 sqft lot Garage $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bridgeport is a charming one-story home featuring an open-concept design with the island kitchen overlooking combined formals. A private primary suite is situated privately in the back of the home, separate from the three secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Island kitchen
• 5,600 sq ft lot

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $224,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $314,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-430 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,526 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.84%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,990
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -15.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
544 Wax Myrtle Way	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-0%)	0mo	$290,990	$185	91
256 Elm Spring Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-3%)	1mo	$252,990	$164	86
237 Elm Spring Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-3%)	4mo	$257,990	$168	84
101 Rising Cedar Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (-6%)	3mo	$249,990	$168	79
121 Rising Cedar Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,858 (+17%)	1mo	$279,990	$151	64
24301 Country Ln	0.94mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+13%)	23mo	$285,000	$159	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-85,001
• Equity at exit: $46,966

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-134,747
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 31.2 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $274,945 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 183 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +16.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2097
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,819

Max offer price $252,836

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-212	-5% $-321	+0% $-430	+5% $-538	+10% $-647
Rent	-10% $-609	-5% $-519	+0% $-430	+5% $-340	+10% $-250
Rate	-1.0pp $-271	-0.5pp $-349	base $-430	+0.5pp $-511	+1.0pp $-594

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,748
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $600 (association name: TBD)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionSingle-family homeSlab foundationBuilt in 2026
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandQuartz countersKitchen/family room comboBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorThree additional bedrooms on the second floorSecond-floor game room
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboQuartz countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsTankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupWasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $224,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $224,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $224,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $224,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $224,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $224,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $266,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $266,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on marketlisting id $266,900 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $266,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $266,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $266,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $266,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $266,900 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $266,900 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $266,900 Active 64 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $266,900 Active 63 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $266,900 Active 62 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $266,900 Active 61 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $266,900 Active 60 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $266,900 Active 59 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $266,900 Active 58 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $266,900 Active 56 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $266,900 Active 55 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $266,900 Active 54 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $266,900 Active 53 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $266,900 Active 52 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $266,900 Active 51 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $266,900 Active 50 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $266,900 Active 49 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $266,900 Active 48 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $266,900 Active 47 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $266,900 Active 46 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $266,900 Active 45 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $266,900 Active 43 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $266,900 Active 40 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $266,900 Active 37 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $266,900 Active 36 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $266,900 Active 35 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $266,900 Active 34 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $266,900 Active 32 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $266,900 Active 28 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $266,900 Active 27 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $266,900 Active 26 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $266,900 Active 23 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $266,900 Active 22 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $266,900 Active 21 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $266,900 Active 20 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $266,900 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,644
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,184
• − Management: −$2,184
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,163
• Taxable loss: −$10,775
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,586
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,910–$23,730 screening

This one-story home features a modern kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, a well-maintained exterior, and hardwood flooring. It is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a good candidate for cosmetic upgrades to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 60,772 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $600 (association name: TBD)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionSingle-family homeSlab foundationBuilt in 2026
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandQuartz countersKitchen/family room comboBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorThree additional bedrooms on the second floorSecond-floor game room
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboQuartz countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsTankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupWasherDryer

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-23 Listed $266,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $266,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $281,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Listed $273,900 Zillow