1165 Chiming Bells Ct · Badger, AK 99705

$345,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,483 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2003 1.26 ac lot Est $403k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this charming ranch home in a great North Pole neighborhood! The house sits on over an acre and is super convenient to FWW and Eielson AFB. The home features a large, fenced yard with a Trex deck and lots of room out front to park all your toys. You'll love the open living space with vaulted ceilings and newer kitchen appliances. The master bedroom features a walk-in closet and ensuite bathroom. The laundry/mud room leads to the two-car attached, heated garage. This efficient home has a great layout with lots of natural light. Come check it out today!

Key facts

• Laundry mud room
• Fenced yard
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• TREX DECK
• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• LAUNDRY MUD ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Detached residential property; Built in 2003
• Exterior features: Approximately 1.26-acre lot; Lot around 55,081 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Three bedrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ticasuk Brown Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #128 of 156 statewide, top 86%, 397 students, 41% FRL); North Pole Middle School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #21 of 36 statewide, top 57%, 531 students, 39% FRL); North Pole High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #33 of 61 statewide, top 57%, 617 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $237,317 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $403,376
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1211 Marsh Laurel Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+4%)	1mo	$425,000	$275	83
1181 Calla Lily Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-6%)	10mo	$302,000	$216	79
1189 Groundsel Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+2%)	14mo	$414,900	$275	74
1155 Marsh Laurel Ave	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,580 (+6%)	9mo	$430,000	$272	72
1225 Indian Paint Brush Ct	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,431 (-4%)	8mo	$389,900	$272	67
1200 Labrador Tea Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-8%)	19mo	$355,000	$260	64
1160 Rock Jasmine Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-14%)	9mo	$355,000	$278	55
1475 Daniel St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-12%)	20mo	$260,000	$200	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-65,741
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-55,107
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,373 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,845/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,667

Max offer price $304,030

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1278 Still Valley Rd #2 North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	43d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $345,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   remarks 565-char remark
3. 2026-06-09
   listed $345,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,975 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,130/yr (+$94/mo · 61.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$1,845
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$9,010
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,162
• After-tax cash flow: $-621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $345,000 GFBR
• 2026-06-08 Listed $345,000 AKMLS
• 2005-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,845 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.