436 N Mercey Springs Rd #69 · Los Banos, CA 93635

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 136 Days on market

Built 1973 $80/sqft · 30% below area Est $121k · 30% under ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turn-Key 2/2 Mobile Home in Casa Mobile Park Ready for Your Personal Touch! Welcome to comfortable, low-maintenance living in the well-established Casa Mobile Home Park, a friendly, all-ages community conveniently located just off Highway 152 in Los Banos. This Double-wide mobile home offers spacious rooms and immediate move-in readiness, perfect for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking an affordable living with easy access to shopping, schools. Cozy living area with ample natural light. Practical kitchen ready for daily meals. Full bathroom(s) with classic fixtures. Central cooling and heating for year-round comfort. Expand outdoor living with a new patio, deck, or garden area > with a large back yard you may add your own landscaping flair.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Spacious rooms
• Practical kitchen

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• SPACIOUS ROOMS
• IMMEDIATE MOVE IN READINESS
• PRACTICAL KITCHEN
• FULL BATHROOM
• CENTRAL COOLING AND HEATING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 3.4% in Los Banos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#270 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Los Banos Unified (town): math 3% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #503 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.97%
• DSCR: 3.36
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,046
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -29.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
436 N Mercey Springs Rd #145	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (0%)	10mo	$150,000	$142	83
436 N Mercey Spg #128	0.07mi	2/2.0	950 (-10%)	15mo	$60,000	$63	68
436 N Mercey Springs Rd #87	0.05mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-11%)	18mo	$130,000	$139	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $60,793
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.26×
• Total profit: $172,871
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93635

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $1,051

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1018 Santa Barbara St Los Banos, CA	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	43d	1	0.45mi
115 N Santa Rita St Los Banos, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,600	$2.12	43d	1	0.62mi
827 Mesa Ct Los Banos, CA	3.0	2.0	1157	$2,350	$2.03	13d	1	0.77mi
473 Driftwood Ave Los Banos, CA	3.0	2.0	1070	$1,950	$1.82	43d	1	0.87mi
254 Driftwood Ave Los Banos, CA	3.0	2.0	1322	$2,300	$1.74	43d	1	0.94mi
645 E St Los Banos, CA	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,900	$1.72	13d	1	0.99mi
1306 Canal Farm Ln Los Banos, CA	2.0	1.0	766	$1,775	$2.32	43d	1	1.14mi
728 Illinois Ave Unit 4 Los Banos, CA	2.0	1.0	760	$1,375	$1.81	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    price $85,000 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Turn-Key 2/2 Mobile Home in Casa Mobile Park Ready for Your Personal Touch! Welcome to comfortable, low-maintenance living in the well-established Casa Mobile Home Park, a friendly, all-ages community conveniently located just off Highway 152 in Los Banos. This Double-wide mobile home offers spacious rooms and immediate move-in readiness, perfect for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking an affordable living with easy access to shopping, schools. Cozy living area with ample natural light. Practical kitchen ready for daily meals. Full bathroom(s) with classic fixtures. Central cooling and heating for year-round comfort. Expand outdoor living with a new patio, deck, or garden area > with a large back yard you may add your own landscaping flair.

16. 2026-03-27
    price $85,000 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Turn-Key 2/2 Mobile Home in Casa Mobile Park Ready for Your Personal Touch! Welcome to comfortable, low-maintenance living in the well-established Casa Mobile Home Park, a friendly, all-ages community conveniently located just off Highway 152 in Los Banos. This Double-wide mobile home offers spacious rooms and immediate move-in readiness, perfect for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking an affordable living with easy access to shopping, schools. Cozy living area with ample natural light. Practical kitchen ready for daily meals. Full bathroom(s) with classic fixtures. Central cooling and heating for year-round comfort. Expand outdoor living with a new patio, deck, or garden area > with a large back yard you may add your own landscaping flair.

17. 2026-03-12
    price $95,000 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Turn-Key 2/2 Mobile Home in Casa Mobile Park Ready for Your Personal Touch! Welcome to comfortable, low-maintenance living in the well-established Casa Mobile Home Park, a friendly, all-ages community conveniently located just off Highway 152 in Los Banos. This Double-wide mobile home offers spacious rooms and immediate move-in readiness, perfect for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking an affordable living with easy access to shopping, schools. Cozy living area with ample natural light. Practical kitchen ready for daily meals. Full bathroom(s) with classic fixtures. Central cooling and heating for year-round comfort. Expand outdoor living with a new patio, deck, or garden area > with a large back yard you may add your own landscaping flair.

18. 2026-03-12
    price $95,000 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Turn-Key 2/2 Mobile Home in Casa Mobile Park Ready for Your Personal Touch! Welcome to comfortable, low-maintenance living in the well-established Casa Mobile Home Park, a friendly, all-ages community conveniently located just off Highway 152 in Los Banos. This Double-wide mobile home offers spacious rooms and immediate move-in readiness, perfect for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking an affordable living with easy access to shopping, schools. Cozy living area with ample natural light. Practical kitchen ready for daily meals. Full bathroom(s) with classic fixtures. Central cooling and heating for year-round comfort. Expand outdoor living with a new patio, deck, or garden area > with a large back yard you may add your own landscaping flair.

19. 2026-02-03
    listed $99,888 Active 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Turn-Key 2/2 Mobile Home in Casa Mobile Park Ready for Your Personal Touch! Welcome to comfortable, low-maintenance living in the well-established Casa Mobile Home Park, a friendly, all-ages community conveniently located just off Highway 152 in Los Banos. This Double-wide mobile home offers spacious rooms and immediate move-in readiness, perfect for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking an affordable living with easy access to shopping, schools. Cozy living area with ample natural light. Practical kitchen ready for daily meals. Full bathroom(s) with classic fixtures. Central cooling and heating for year-round comfort. Expand outdoor living with a new patio, deck, or garden area > with a large back yard you may add your own landscaping flair.

20. 2026-02-03
    listed $99,888 Active 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Turn-Key 2/2 Mobile Home in Casa Mobile Park Ready for Your Personal Touch! Welcome to comfortable, low-maintenance living in the well-established Casa Mobile Home Park, a friendly, all-ages community conveniently located just off Highway 152 in Los Banos. This Double-wide mobile home offers spacious rooms and immediate move-in readiness, perfect for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking an affordable living with easy access to shopping, schools. Cozy living area with ample natural light. Practical kitchen ready for daily meals. Full bathroom(s) with classic fixtures. Central cooling and heating for year-round comfort. Expand outdoor living with a new patio, deck, or garden area > with a large back yard you may add your own landscaping flair.

21. 2025-02-28
    price $125,000
22. 2025-01-08
    listed $139,000 Active
23. 2024-08-08
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $11,966
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,872
• After-tax cash flow: $9,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Banos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622740
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $48,783
• Composite: 9.04/100
• National rank: #9875
• State rank: #503 of 517 in CA

Livability — Los Banos

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #9141

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Banos, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 50,149
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,149
• Household income: $67,129
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1595.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% White 20% Two or more races 12% Native American 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -357.30%
• Current HPI: 217.6528
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.53%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-43.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $85,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $85,000 MLSListings
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $95,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $95,000 MLSListings
• 2026-02-03 Listed $99,888 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-03 Listed $99,888 MLSListings
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $125,000 TCMLS
• 2025-01-08 Listed $139,000 TCMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $150,000 TCMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2020): $106 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.