15 Hill Ln · Coldspring, TX 77331

$150,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2013 7,836 sqft lot $130/sqft · 13% below area Est $172k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly remodeled and move-in ready, this charming single-story home offers comfort, accessibility, and convenience. Featuring 3 bedrooms, this upgraded property includes wheelchair-friendly features such as an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area, wide doorways, a walk-in shower, and a ramp to the front door. Enjoy outdoor living on the large wraparound front porch or in the fenced backyard—perfect for pets, entertaining, or relaxing. A storage shed and refrigerator are included.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Refrigerator
• Open-concept living

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• LARGE WRAPAROUND FRONT PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• REFRIGERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.3% in Coldspring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,357 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.10%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,992
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -12.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1244 State Highway 150	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	17mo	$179,900	$144	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $431
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $32,181
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,415/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $474	-5% $431	+0% $389	+5% $346	+10% $304
Rent	-10% $253	-5% $321	+0% $389	+5% $456	+10% $524
Rate	-1.0pp $464	-0.5pp $427	base $389	+0.5pp $350	+1.0pp $310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $150,000 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Freshly remodeled and move-in ready, this charming single-story home offers comfort, accessibility, and convenience. Featuring 3 bedrooms, this upgraded property includes wheelchair-friendly features such as an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area, wide doorways, a walk-in shower, and a ramp to the front door. Enjoy outdoor living on the large wraparound front porch or in the fenced backyard—perfect for pets, entertaining, or relaxing. A storage shed and refrigerator are included.

18. 2026-04-09
    historical

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Freshly remodeled and move-in ready, this charming single-story home offers comfort, accessibility, and convenience. Featuring 3 bedrooms, this upgraded property includes wheelchair-friendly features such as an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area, wide doorways, a walk-in shower, and a ramp to the front door. Enjoy outdoor living on the large wraparound front porch or in the fenced backyard—perfect for pets, entertaining, or relaxing. A storage shed and refrigerator are included.

19. 2026-03-27
    listed $159,500 Active
20. 2026-03-27
    historical
21. 2026-02-04
    price $159,500
22. 2026-01-16
    price $165,000
23. 2025-12-12
    price $170,000
24. 2025-11-14
    listed $175,000 Active
25. 2024-06-04
    soldstatus
26. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2024-03-28
    status Pending, Continue to Show
28. 2024-02-06
    price $92,500
29. 2023-11-18
    listed $120,000 Active
30. 2013-07-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,415 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,330/yr (+$111/mo · 93.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,415
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$568
• After-tax cash flow: $4,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coldspring

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1357
• US rank: #23364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,348

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $159,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $159,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-03-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-06 Price Changed $92,500 HARMLS
• 2023-11-18 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2013-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+30.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,415 · +88.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.