206 County Road 738 · Riceville, TN 37370

$154,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1946 0.35 ac lot $114/sqft · 38% below area Est $250k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home boasts many historic charms and features from its time of construction, including tall ceilings, a spacious front porch, and a double-sided fireplace. The property has frontage on two streets, one in the front and one in the rear. Additionally, it includes a stone-lined well and outbuildings that evoke a sense of nostalgia from years gone by.

Key facts

• Outbuildings
• Spacious front porch
• Stone-lined well

Tags

• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• DOUBLE-SIDED FIREPLACE
• FRONTAGE ON TWO STREETS
• STONE-LINED WELL
• OUTBUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (1.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.9% in Riceville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#217 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Mcminn County (rural): math 24% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #77 of 139 in TN (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in McMinn County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,854 (1.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.66%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,607
• List price: $154,500
• Delta: -35.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
132 County Road 79	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,298 (-5%)	10mo	$200,000	$154	63
112 County Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+10%)	13mo	$358,000	$239	39
112 County Rd #155	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+10%)	13mo	$358,000	$239	39
109 County Road 155	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+10%)	16mo	$350,000	$233	36
108 County Road 155	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-12%)	13mo	$299,000	$249	35
113 County Rd #155	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+10%)	16mo	$359,900	$240	35
109 County Rd #155	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+10%)	16mo	$350,000	$233	35
133 County Rd #155	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-12%)	16mo	$357,143	$298	32
133 County Road 155	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-12%)	16mo	$357,143	$298	32
138 Co Rd 721	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,524 (+12%)	19mo	$388,000	$255	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-16,610
• Equity at exit: $23,036

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,551
• Equity at exit: $13,358

Cash invested: $43,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37370

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,519 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$810
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$193 /mo · $2,318/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,352

Max offer price $154,500

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,625
• Closing costs: $4,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,500 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,500 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 354-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $154,500 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-05-04
   historical
6. 2026-02-03
   listed $159,900 Active
7. 2026-02-03
   historical
8. 2025-11-04
   listed $169,900 Active
9. 2017-03-17
   listed $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,654
• − Property taxes: −$2,318
• − Insurance: −$772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,458
• − Management: −$1,458
• − Depreciation: −$4,495
• Taxable loss: −$932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$224
• After-tax cash flow: $1,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcminn County
• NCES district ID: 4702820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,622
• Composite: 22.49/100
• National rank: #8099
• State rank: #77 of 139 in TN

Livability — Riceville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #16490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riceville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 5,244

Population outlook (McMinn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,766 people
• By 2030: 54,098 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 54,450 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 54,202 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 55,241 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 56,399 · +4.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · McMinn

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.5% · R 81.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.9pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+60.6 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+41.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.19%
• Current HPI: 253.5229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+175.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $159,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $169,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2017-03-17 Listed $58,000 RCAOR

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $300 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.