99 Mager Ln Unit C · Hutto, TX 78634

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily · 146 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 1,999 sqft lot $227/sqft · 17% below area Est $276k · 17% under $150/mo HOA · 8% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

22 homes available from the low $200's! The Juniper is a modern 3 bed, 2 bath stand-alone condo in The Villas at Cottonwood Trail—a boutique 22-home community in Hutto, TX. Priced from $229,900, choose from two thoughtfully designed floor plans featuring a bright, open living, kitchen, and dining area with large windows that bring in abundant natural light. A main-floor bedroom with ensuite bath is privately located near the downstairs washroom. Upstairs includes two spacious bedrooms with large closets, a full bath, and a flexible loft space—ideal for a home office, playroom, or media area. Washer/dryer connections are conveniently located near the upstairs bath.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Bright open living
• Main-floor bedroom

Tags

• STAND-ALONE CONDO
• BRIGHT OPEN LIVING
• LARGE WINDOWS
• MAIN-FLOOR BEDROOM
• ENSUITE BATH
• FLEXIBLE LOFT SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Hutto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in TX, #2,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hutto El (math 33% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 744 students, 36% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 1501 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,773 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.47%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,002
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -16.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Quail Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+14%)	2mo	$263,000	$228	56
302 Clarks Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,205 (+19%)	9mo	$244,900	$203	52
305 Kates Way	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,198 (+18%)	19mo	$265,900	$222	40
108 Johnson Cv	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+18%)	23mo	$269,999	$225	40
506 West St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-11%)	3mo	$239,500	$266	37
503 N Fm 1660 Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,132 (+12%)	17mo	$260,000	$230	35
109 W Live Oak St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+10%)	24mo	$350,000	$313	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-57,953
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-91,115
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $247,450 ($235/sqft)
• Median days on market: 139 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78634

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 1501
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,448/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,201

Max offer price $195,232

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-81	-5% $-160	+0% $-240	+5% $-319	+10% $-398
Rent	-10% $-390	-5% $-315	+0% $-240	+5% $-165	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-124	-0.5pp $-181	base $-240	+0.5pp $-299	+1.0pp $-360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 Cranbrook Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$2,045	$1.39	7d	1	0.18mi
117 Cranbrook Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$2,045	$1.39	9d	1	0.18mi
112 Creekside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1352	$1,875	$1.39	113d	1	0.24mi
201 Quail Cir Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,950	$1.37	139d	1	0.35mi
202 Quail Cir Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,700	$1.19	117d	1	0.39mi
1051 N Farm to Market 1660 Unit B1 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	139d	1	0.39mi
1051 N Farm to Market 1660 Unit 116 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,375	$1.25	139d	1	0.39mi
318 Durango Downs Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,850	$1.41	139d	1	0.45mi
1051 N FM 1660 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	4d	1	0.46mi
120 Oakdale Meadows Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,195	$1.47	83d	1	0.49mi
119 Oakdale Meadows Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1477	$2,080	$1.41	4d	1	0.49mi
102 E Live Oak St Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	886	$1,675	$1.89	7d	1	0.51mi
900 Main St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	67d	1	0.57mi
401 County Road 199 Hutto, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1013	$2,444	$2.41	0d	79	0.73mi
106 Hague St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,850	$1.32	23d	1	0.79mi
202 Evans St Unit 1 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.5	1084	$1,500	$1.38	42d	1	0.85mi
337 Rockies Rd Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,849	$1.25	9d	1	0.87mi
325 Rockies Rd Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,799	$1.33	9d	1	0.88mi
106 Co-Op Blvd Hutto, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	884	$2,250	$2.55	0d	37	0.89mi
209 Rinehardt St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$2,000	$1.65	56d	1	0.91mi
209 Rinehardt St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,900	$1.57	23d	1	0.91mi
212 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	23d	1	0.96mi
322 Meadowside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1009	$1,750	$1.73	80d	1	0.96mi
600 Wiley St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,750	$1.17	67d	1	0.98mi
551 Exchange Blvd Hutto, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,250	$2.41	0d	20	1.00mi
603 Wiley St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,800	$1.42	63d	1	1.01mi
311 Gainer Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,795	$1.21	59d	1	1.02mi
311 Gainer Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,895	$1.28	76d	1	1.02mi
132 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$4,800	$3.75	113d	1	1.03mi
318 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,900	$1.33	100d	1	1.04mi
107 Harvest Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,550	$1.25	9d	1	1.07mi
107 Harvest Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	139d	1	1.07mi
128 Almquist St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,900	$1.28	83d	1	1.12mi
110 Meadowside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	991	$1,500	$1.51	139d	1	1.21mi
1011 Iola Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,673	$1.45	42d	1	1.22mi
201 Marvin Cv Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1257	$1,550	$1.23	42d	1	1.24mi
203 Marvin Cv Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1257	$1,550	$1.23	42d	1	1.24mi
106 Marvin Cv Hutto, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	42d	1	1.36mi
206 Holman Path Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1385	$2,300	$1.66	0d	1	1.42mi
6007 Lone Star Ct Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	9d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $150 monthly fee (association name TBD)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (see remarks for details)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: 2 storiesUnder constructionFaces southEntry on slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank siding with stone accentsShingle roofBuilt by Turnstyle Homes, LLC
• Exterior features: Private yardCovered patio/porchBack yardWood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: MicrowaveOven
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating details: see remarks
• Interior features: Open floorplanInterior stepsMain-level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a laundry closet

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $229,900 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $229,900 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $229,900 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $229,900 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $229,900 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $229,900 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $229,900 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $229,900 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 126 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 123 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 122 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $229,900 Active 121 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $229,900 Active 120 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $229,900 Active 119 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $229,900 Active 117 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $229,900 Active 116 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $229,900 Active 115 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $229,900 Active 114 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $229,900 Active 113 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $229,900 Active 112 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $229,900 Active 111 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $229,900 Active 110 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $229,900 Active 109 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $229,900 Active 108 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $229,900 Active 107 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $229,900 Active 106 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $229,900 Active 105 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $229,900 Active 103 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $229,900 Active 102 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $229,900 Active 101 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 100 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $229,900 Active 98 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 97 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 96 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 95 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 92 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 90 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $229,900 Active 89 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $229,900 Active 87 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $229,900 Active 85 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $229,900 Active 84 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $229,900 Active 83 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $229,900 Active 82 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,448
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$6,835
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,640
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Juniper model at The Villas at Cottonwood Trail is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates like painting and landscaping enhancing its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes spaces and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hutto El F TX #1,651/4,322 Nat'l #20,819/41,679 Middle Hutto Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Hutto H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Hutto

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2794

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hutto, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 46,413
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,413
• Household income: $114,426
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

---

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.56%
• Current HPI: 194.2221
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $150 monthly fee (association name TBD)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (see remarks for details)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: 2 storiesUnder constructionFaces southEntry on slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank siding with stone accentsShingle roofBuilt by Turnstyle Homes, LLC
• Exterior features: Private yardCovered patio/porchBack yardWood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: MicrowaveOven
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating details: see remarks
• Interior features: Open floorplanInterior stepsMain-level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a laundry closet

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $229,900 Unlock MLS