91 Dogwood Pl · Point Blank, TX 77364

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1978 0.79 ac lot $134/sqft · 23% below area Est $232k · 23% under $6/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy and well-maintained, this 3 bed, 2 bath brick home sits on over three-quarters of an acre, spanning three oversized lots in the desirable lakeside subdivision of North Woods! Inside, you'll love the split floor plan, formal dining area, and spacious living spaces throughout. The primary suite features a beautifully tiled walk-in shower, and the fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors. A detached two-car garage adds both functionality and convenience. This charming home has been lovingly cared for — come see all it has to offer!

Key facts

• 0.79 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.7% in Point Blank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,477 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $693 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-551 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,407 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,498
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -22.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
161 W Lakeview Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+7%)	18mo	$699,900	$485	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-22,959
• Equity at exit: $49,501

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,788
• Equity at exit: $57,360

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77364

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,873/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,494

Max offer price $138,009

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,900 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-05-18
    price $179,900 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Cozy and well-maintained, this 3 bed, 2 bath brick home sits on over three-quarters of an acre, spanning three oversized lots in the desirable lakeside subdivision of North Woods! Inside, you'll love the split floor plan, formal dining area, and spacious living spaces throughout. The primary suite features a beautifully tiled walk-in shower, and the fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors. A detached two-car garage adds both functionality and convenience. This charming home has been lovingly cared for — come see all it has to offer!

14. 2026-03-11
    listed $199,900 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Cozy and well-maintained, this 3 bed, 2 bath brick home sits on over three-quarters of an acre, spanning three oversized lots in the desirable lakeside subdivision of North Woods! Inside, you'll love the split floor plan, formal dining area, and spacious living spaces throughout. The primary suite features a beautifully tiled walk-in shower, and the fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors. A detached two-car garage adds both functionality and convenience. This charming home has been lovingly cared for — come see all it has to offer!

15. 2026-03-09
    historical
16. 2025-10-27
    price $215,000
17. 2025-09-01
    price $225,000
18. 2025-07-02
    listed $239,000 Active
19. 2009-10-30
    soldstatus
20. 2009-09-03
    historical
21. 2009-07-18
    listed $53,805
22. 2009-06-30
    historical
23. 2009-06-08
    listed $63,805
24. 2005-08-30
    historical
25. 2004-09-10
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,873 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,292 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,419/yr (+$118/mo · 75.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,873
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$6,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,469
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Point Blank

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1477
• US rank: #25299

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Current HPI: 193.4748
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+125.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2009-10-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-09-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-07-18 Listed $53,805 HARMLS
• 2009-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-06-08 Listed $63,805 HARMLS
• 2005-08-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-09-10 Listed $79,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,873 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.