438 Denver Ave · Massac, KY 42001

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Other · 70 Days on market

Built 2010 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must see inside to appreciate! Quality home. 32 x 56 Sunshine Homes model with good open floor plan, nice crown molding, sheet rock walls, bull nose corners, working fireplace and large utility room. Recent upgrades include new roof and kitchen appliances. New heat and air. New carpet. Interior is handicap accessible. New carport. One Storage building (the older one) and lot are both included. Convenient Lone Oak location.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Working fireplace
• Crown molding

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CROWN MOLDING
• WORKING FIREPLACE
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM
• NEW ROOF
• NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.0% in Massac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#311 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mccracken County (town): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $150k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.75%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,314
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $11,010
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42001

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,443 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,145

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2258 Rock Creek Cir Paducah, KY	3.0	1.5	1800	$1,020	$0.57	43d	1	0.86mi
4300 Lovelaceville Rd Paducah, KY	2.0	2.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	43d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-17
   listed $149,900 Active 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Must see inside to appreciate! Quality home. 32 x 56 Sunshine Homes model with good open floor plan, nice crown molding, sheet rock walls, bull nose corners, working fireplace and large utility room. Recent upgrades include new roof and kitchen appliances. New heat and air. New carpet. Interior is handicap accessible. New carport. One Storage building (the older one) and lot are both included. Convenient Lone Oak location.

2. 2021-07-16
   listed $125,000
3. 2020-05-29
   soldstatus $80,000
4. 2020-05-29
   listed $80,000
5. 1997-10-01
   soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $668 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,289 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$621/yr (+$52/mo · 92.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$90
• After-tax cash flow: $2,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mccracken County
• NCES district ID: 2103960
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,976
• Composite: 39.84/100
• National rank: #3871
• State rank: #16 of 165 in KY

Livability — Massac

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #14933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Massac, KY
• County: McCracken County · 30,856 people
• Metro: Paducah, KY-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,856
• Household income: $71,365
• Rent vs Own: 36.5% rent · 63.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1001.0

Population outlook (McCracken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,237 people
• By 2030: 63,468 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 61,221 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 58,432 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 52,668 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 44,517 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McCracken

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.9% · R 66.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+32.5 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.23%
• Current HPI: 258.1706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paducah, KY-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+2898.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $149,900 WKRMLS
• 2021-07-16 Listed $125,000 WKRMLS
• 2020-05-29 Listed $80,000 WKRMLS
• 2020-05-29 Sold (MLS) $80,000 WKRMLS
• 1997-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $668 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.