5217 Blackie Ln · Ivor, VA 23898

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 812 sqft · Manufactured · 84 Days on market

Built 2010 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The listing is for a 1985 Frontier Manufactured Home, a Storage Building located on a 2.00 parcel by tax records. Sold AS-IS. Secluded parcel and home had tons of potential.

Key facts

• Secluded parcel
• 2 acre lot
• Built 2010

Tags

• SECLUDED PARCEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($922 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#344 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Windsor Elementary (math 74% / reading 76%, grade A, #211 of 1,108 statewide, top 20%, 600 students, 48% FRL); Windsor High (math 62% / reading 82%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 527 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.58%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $59,607
• Equity at exit: $71,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.28×
• Total profit: $162,785
• Equity at exit: $155,228

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23898

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $922 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $277/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $602

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-10
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-12-19
   listed $79,900 Active
4. 2025-12-18
   historical
5. 2022-10-17
   status Active
6. 2022-10-14
   historical
7. 2019-10-21
   price $15,200
8. 2019-10-14
   listed $46,850 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $277 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $655 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 136.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$277
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$885
• − Management: −$885
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $1,819
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$437
• After-tax cash flow: $2,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Isle Of Wight County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102010
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,756
• Composite: 58.67/100
• National rank: #982
• State rank: #28 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ivor

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #13675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,146

Population outlook (Isle of Wight County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,005 people
• By 2030: 40,089 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 41,703 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 42,745 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 47,222 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 47,810 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 14% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Isle of Wight

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.6% · R 59.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.36%
• Current HPI: 337.1046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+70.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-02-10 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $79,900 REINMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2022-10-17 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2022-10-14 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2019-10-21 Price Changed $15,200 REINMLS
• 2019-10-14 Listed $46,850 REINMLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $277 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.