213 S 2nd St St W · Aurora, MN 55705

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 189 Days on market

Built 1957 0.45 ac lot Est $149k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom 1 bath home complete with attached 20x26 garage sitting on a large 125x150 lot near the edge of town in Aurora. This home features 2 main level bedrooms along with a full bath and a spacious living room/ dining room area and a front porch. Upstairs features a 3rd bedroom while the lower level has a den, office area, and laundry room. Roof replaced in 2007 and 200 amp electrical service.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Front porch
• Large lot

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• LARGE LOT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FRONT PORCH
• DEN
• OFFICE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-873/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#312 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mesabi East School District (rural): math 27% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #240 of 301 in MN (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mesabi East Elementary (math 33% / reading 47%, grade F, #600 of 857 statewide, top 70%, 474 students, 51% FRL); Mesabi East Secondary (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #354 of 471 statewide, top 77%, 415 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $155k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,806 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.01%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,730
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 S 2nd St St W	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,373 (-1%)	4mo	$125,000	$91	88
312 S 2nd ST St W	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (+6%)	1mo	$197,000	$133	79
313 S 2nd St St E	0.32mi	3/1.8	1,388 (-0%)	9mo	$120,000	$86	77
306 W 1st Ave N	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+1%)	15mo	$154,000	$109	69
306 S 2nd St W	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-14%)	4mo	$139,900	$117	62
313 S 1st St St E	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,368 (-2%)	21mo	$106,000	$77	60
711 Maple Dr	0.66mi	3/1.2	1,365 (-2%)	14mo	$187,500	$137	52
45 S Erie St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,335 (-4%)	15mo	$160,000	$120	51
27 W 4th Ave N	0.45mi	3/1.8	1,248 (-10%)	12mo	$134,000	$107	51
114 W 3rd Ave Ave N	0.41mi	3/1.8	1,188 (-14%)	9mo	$49,400	$42	48
212 3rd Ave Ave N	0.57mi	2/1.2 (-1)	1,277 (-8%)	12mo	$99,450	$78	41
705 Arrowhead St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,540 (+11%)	21mo	$138,000	$90	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-29,766
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-31,945
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55705

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,702/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,290

Max offer price $142,142

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-29	+0% $-73	+5% $-117	+10% $-161
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-120	+0% $-73	+5% $-25	+10% $22
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-33	base $-73	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-14
   listed $155,000 Active
3. 2011-12-21
   soldstatus $75,000
4. 2009-08-18
   soldstatus $75,000
5. 2004-04-01
   soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,719 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$17/yr (+$1/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,702
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,150
• − Management: −$1,150
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$3,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$862
• After-tax cash flow: $-11/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesabi East School District
• NCES district ID: 2791450
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,546
• Composite: 31.69/100
• National rank: #5922
• State rank: #240 of 301 in MN

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #6901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, MN
• Population (ZIP): 3,248

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Native American 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Slovak 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.93%
• Current HPI: 266.5875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+203.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — RAOR
• 2025-10-14 Listed $155,000 RAOR
• 2011-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,702 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.