10210 Penryn Forest Trl · Houston, TX 77051

$279,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,384 sqft · Land · 29 Days on market

Built 2025 3,551 sqft lot $113/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Gardenia floor plan, a beautifully designed two-story home that spans 1,384 square feet, complete with a spacious two-car garage. As you step inside, you're greeted by a welcoming front foyer that seamlessly flows into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for family gatherings and entertaining guests. The kitchen features a stylish island, providing extra storage space and seating options for added convenience. Further down the hallway, the luxurious primary bedroom awaits, located towards the front of the home for added privacy. The adjoining primary bathroom offers a two-sink vanity, a standing shower, and a spacious walk-in closet, ensuring you have a

Key facts

• Gardenia floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Stylish island

Tags

• GARDENIA FLOOR PLAN
• STYLISH ISLAND
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• TWO-SINK VANITY
• STANDING SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure applies
• HOA & community: Association managed by Inframark; Annual association fee of $1,350

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-family style (builder: DR Horton)
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second floor (approximately 12x12); Two additional bedrooms on the second floor (each approximately 10x12)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Granite counters; Programmable thermostat; No fireplaces; Three total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,475.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,104/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $210,360 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.09%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,475
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -5.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $152,083
• Equity at exit: $267,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $466,761
• Equity at exit: $577,928

Cash invested: $83,293 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,560
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $953/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,375

Max offer price $259,578

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,369
• Closing costs: $8,924
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	18d	1	0.18mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,525	$1.30	20d	1	0.23mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	22d	1	0.25mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	5d	1	0.25mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	43d	1	0.43mi
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	43d	1	0.48mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,280	$1.32	1d	5	0.62mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	43d	1	0.71mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	43d	1	0.84mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	3d	2	0.87mi
11900 Oakmoor Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,469	$1.65	3d	12	1.18mi
3137 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,802	$1.55	43d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $279,990 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,990 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,990 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-05-09
   price $304,990 242-char remark
5. 2026-05-07
   price $279,990 242-char remark
6. 2026-05-03
   listed $284,990 Active 898-char remark
7. 2026-03-22
   listed $304,990 Active 242-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $953 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,171/yr (+$348/mo · 437.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,663
• − Property taxes: −$953
• − Insurance: −$1,487
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$8,654
• Taxable loss: −$7,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,898
• After-tax cash flow: $-676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $284,990 HARMLS