2940 Tolman Ave SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$294,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,443 sqft · Land · 258 Days on market

Built 2026 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Palm Bay is a lively city where suburban comfort meets natural beauty. Situated along the Indian River and only 15 minutes from the Atlantic Ocean, the area provides plenty of opportunities for boating, fishing, and hiking. With a welcoming atmosphere and abundant recreational options, Palm Bay supports an active Florida lifestyle. Introducing The Violet—a 3-bedroom home thoughtfully designed to combine comfort, style, and modern smart features. Enter through the inviting foyer into a split-bedroom layout, where two secondary bedrooms share a full bath and linen closet, offering both privacy and convenience. At the center of the home, the open-concept kitchen featu

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Open-concept kitchen
• Plush carpet

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• CERAMIC TILE
• PLUSH CARPET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Aerobic septic system; Cable available; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single family residence; One level (single-story); New construction; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; New construction
• Exterior features: Extended concrete patio just off the great room; Patio; Storm shutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Full line of stainless steel appliances; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms — all on the first floor; Primary bedroom: ensuite with shower, dual sinks, walk-in closet (carpet and ceramic tile flooring); Bedroom 2: built-in closet, carpet flooring; Bedroom 3: built-in closet, carpet flooring
• Flooring: Carpet in main living areas and bedrooms; Ceramic tile in kitchen, bathrooms, and laundry
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath: shower (no tub), dual sinks, ceramic tile flooring
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan with entrance foyer; Kitchen island and pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom layout; Primary bedroom on first floor with shower-only ensuite; Smart home features including smart thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup; Linen closet in laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-343 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 759 students, 58% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $295k implies a 719% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,594 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $140,273
• Equity at exit: $265,669

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $433,345
• Equity at exit: $572,926

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,424/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $245,311

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
820 Tedder Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,000	$1.11	23d	1	0.35mi
1213 Waterford St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,000	$1.18	23d	1	0.64mi
3219 Hainsworth Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1219	$2,100	$1.72	14d	1	0.73mi
1198 Venus St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,961	$1.28	21d	1	0.73mi
2691 Tepee Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,040	$1.11	21d	1	0.75mi
543 Reading St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,010	$1.10	21d	1	0.75mi
486 Dadeville St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,995	$1.09	14d	1	0.83mi
496 Vanguard St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,150	$1.29	23d	1	0.85mi
1063 Grantham Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	23d	1	0.92mi
1224 Dillard Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,336	$1.32	14d	1	1.00mi
590 Trymore Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,250	$1.20	14d	1	1.04mi
3247 Halblum Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	1820	$2,516	$1.38	13d	1	1.07mi
2749 Freehold Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,800	$1.30	23d	1	1.08mi
2785 Gabboys Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,849	$1.25	23d	1	1.09mi
291 Foley St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,025	$1.10	13d	1	1.17mi
286 Silver Frost St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,925	$1.05	14d	1	1.27mi
3636 Aberdeen Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	19d	1	1.29mi
238 Silver Frost St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,849	$1.25	23d	1	1.33mi
925 Dugan Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	13d	1	1.33mi
1434 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	13d	1	1.43mi
1416 Martinez St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,000	$1.14	14d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   price $294,900
3. 2026-02-20
   price $299,900
4. 2026-01-23
   price $297,990
5. 2026-01-16
   price $294,990
6. 2025-12-05
   price $289,990
7. 2025-10-17
   price $293,990
8. 2025-09-02
   listed $299,990 Active
9. 2025-02-18
   soldstatus $36,000
10. 2025-01-10
    status Pending
11. 2024-12-18
    status Active
12. 2024-12-12
    status Pending
13. 2024-12-06
    listed $43,000 Active
14. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus $23,500 Closed
15. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus $23,500
16. 2023-01-26
    status Pending
17. 2023-01-23
    price $24,000
18. 2023-01-18
    price $31,000
19. 2023-01-11
    listed $33,000 Active
20. 1986-06-01
    soldstatus $1,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$4,424
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$9,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,248
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+29390.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — SCMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $294,900 SCMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $299,900 SCMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $297,990 SCMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $294,990 SCMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $289,990 SCMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $293,990 SCMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $299,990 SCMLS
• 2025-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-10 Pending — SCMLS
• 2024-12-18 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2024-12-12 Pending — SCMLS
• 2024-12-06 Listed $43,000 SCMLS
• 2023-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records
• 2023-01-31 Sold (MLS) $23,500 SCMLS
• 2023-01-26 Pending — SCMLS
• 2023-01-23 Price Changed $24,000 SCMLS
• 2023-01-18 Price Changed $31,000 SCMLS
• 2023-01-11 Listed $33,000 SCMLS
• 1986-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $583 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.