4 Wooded Ln · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$1,199,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 267 Days on market

Built 2000 1.27 ac lot $667/sqft · at area comps Est $1436k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in the peaceful Red Creek Ridge neighborhood, this classic colonial offers tranquility and privacy on 1.27 acres. With ample space for a pool and outdoor entertaining, the property is ideal for creating your own Hamptons retreat. The residence features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, including a spacious ensuite primary. The eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area, which opens through sliding glass doors to the patio—perfect for dining al fresco or enjoying summer evenings. A versatile bonus room provides the perfect home office or creative space, while the large finished lower level offers additional living and recreational options. Lovingly maintained and move-in ready, this home combines charm, functionality, and tremendous potential. Conveniently located near beaches, marinas, and all the best of Hampton Bays, it’s an opportunity to embrace the Hamptons lifestyle in a property designed for both relaxation and convenience.

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Sliding glass doors
• Dining area

Tags

• 1.27 ACRES
• AMPLE SPACE FOR A POOL
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $852 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.05M (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.05M (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,550/mo this rent would consume 95% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $336k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $970k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,054,975 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,436,086
• List price: $1,199,999
• Delta: -16.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Douglas Ct	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,000 (+11%)	19mo	$1,300,000	$650	47
24 Tanglewood Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,587 (-12%)	1mo	$1,207,000	$761	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-84,750
• Equity at exit: $178,924

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $248,482
• Equity at exit: $103,754

Cash invested: $336,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax from tax record: −$689 /mo · $8,268/yr
• Insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,215
• Net cashflow: $852

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,471

Max offer price $1,199,999

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,532	-5% $1,192	+0% $852	+5% $513	+10% $173
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $436	+0% $852	+5% $1,269	+10% $1,686
Rate	-1.0pp $1,457	-0.5pp $1,158	base $852	+0.5pp $541	+1.0pp $225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $300,000
• Closing costs: $36,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Red Creek Cir Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2274	$15,000	$6.60	19d	1	0.29mi
38 Red Creek Cir Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1968	$9,800	$4.98	21d	1	0.34mi
16 Hildreth Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$23,000	$13.53	13d	1	0.46mi
14 Hildreth Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$15,000	$9.38	44d	1	0.49mi
12 Hildreth Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2055	$10,000	$4.87	44d	1	0.52mi
1 Woodview Way Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$5,500	$3.67	8d	1	0.61mi
6 W Landing Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2291	$30,000	$13.09	7d	1	0.73mi
138 Red Creek Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	2415	$75,449	$31.24	25d	1	0.87mi
32 Red Creek Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1613	$22,000	$13.64	6d	1	0.90mi
38 Red Creek Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2200	$20,000	$9.09	44d	1	0.91mi
30 Squires Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.0	2220	$25,000	$11.26	25d	1	1.14mi
3 Robins Nest Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1603	$17,000	$10.61	19d	1	1.14mi
10 Bittersweet Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	1910	$55,000	$28.80	44d	1	1.37mi
10 Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1560	$45,000	$28.85	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 267 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 265 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 258 DOM
9. 2025-09-15
   listed $1,199,999 Active 972-char remark

   Show marketing remark (972 chars)

   Tucked away in the peaceful Red Creek Ridge neighborhood, this classic colonial offers tranquility and privacy on 1.27 acres. With ample space for a pool and outdoor entertaining, the property is ideal for creating your own Hamptons retreat. The residence features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, including a spacious ensuite primary. The eat-in kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area, which opens through sliding glass doors to the patio—perfect for dining al fresco or enjoying summer evenings. A versatile bonus room provides the perfect home office or creative space, while the large finished lower level offers additional living and recreational options. Lovingly maintained and move-in ready, this home combines charm, functionality, and tremendous potential. Conveniently located near beaches, marinas, and all the best of Hampton Bays, it’s an opportunity to embrace the Hamptons lifestyle in a property designed for both relaxation and convenience.

10. 2024-11-11
    historical
11. 2024-04-20
    price $1,299,999
12. 2023-11-11
    listed $1,250,000 Active
13. 2022-07-28
    soldstatus $970,000
14. 2022-05-05
    soldstatus $970,000 Closed
15. 2022-02-01
    status Pending
16. 2021-11-19
    listed $995,000 Active
17. 1993-02-05
    soldstatus $46,000
18. 1991-01-04
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,268 · $689/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,274 · $1,190/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,006/yr (+$500/mo · 72.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $126,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$67,219
• − Property taxes: −$8,268
• − Insurance: −$6,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,128
• − Management: −$10,128
• − Depreciation: −$34,909
• Taxable loss: −$10,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,413
• After-tax cash flow: $12,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2757.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-15 Listed $1,199,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-20 Price Changed $1,299,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-11 Listed $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $970,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-05 Sold (MLS) $970,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-19 Listed $995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 1991-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $8,268 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.